Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-03-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58674 21470 2709 1001 312 226 0 0
OW 52 167 479 602 282 87 0 0
VODI 0 68 192 586 448 164 0 0
ODI 0 18 73 311 534 188 22 0
CDI 0 2 47 221 565 571 118 0
VCDI 0 0 9 62 672 4779 8809 4580
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58565 20618 2472 1578 434 312 0 0
OW 52 141 300 594 398 143 3 0
VODI 0 75 175 535 595 246 8 0
ODI 0 28 68 256 443 434 51 0
CDI 0 7 64 193 489 985 168 0
VCDI 0 0 18 132 571 4090 8137 5722
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58872 20781 2422 1209 277 225 1 0
OW 52 99 294 695 239 92 0 0
VODI 0 71 104 737 611 176 0 0
ODI 0 24 58 232 725 400 0 0
CDI 0 0 26 199 667 1246 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 55 597 4281 8586 4895
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57893 19990 3248 1721 516 225 16 0
OW 53 124 239 563 402 104 33 0
VODI 0 50 160 447 671 262 34 0
ODI 0 0 71 262 651 565 38 0
CDI 0 0 38 168 619 1313 316 0
VCDI 0 0 0 106 581 3565 8228 5828
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57893 20003 3290 1791 556 211 7 0
OW 53 115 221 531 354 106 35 0
VODI 0 46 138 409 657 249 42 0
ODI 0 0 69 251 613 560 42 0
CDI 0 0 38 168 671 1375 225 0
VCDI 0 0 0 117 589 3533 8314 5828

Date: 2015-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59054 19795 2371 1585 480 252 0 0
OW 52 164 332 475 375 187 0 0
VODI 0 72 211 425 638 335 2 0
ODI 0 32 116 313 485 585 24 0
CDI 0 2 96 159 614 1183 200 0
VCDI 0 0 47 176 566 4008 8227 5462
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59054 19825 2421 1665 540 241 0 0
OW 52 120 298 436 340 186 0 0
VODI 0 87 196 411 599 308 3 0
ODI 0 28 112 292 493 558 28 0
CDI 0 5 88 146 649 1362 181 0
VCDI 0 0 58 183 537 3895 8241 5462

Date: 2015-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56628 22565 2511 1304 434 212 0 0
OW 52 113 442 747 265 134 0 0
VODI 0 9 166 587 688 172 0 0
ODI 0 0 74 256 833 493 3 0
CDI 0 0 29 201 466 1707 201 0
VCDI 0 0 2 82 399 3138 8566 5621
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56628 22326 2371 1543 652 294 0 0
OW 52 166 306 430 345 177 0 0
VODI 0 120 224 442 563 262 1 0
ODI 0 35 113 309 515 536 22 0
CDI 0 32 80 194 451 1274 211 0
VCDI 0 8 130 259 559 3313 8536 5621

Date: 2015-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60622 19094 2237 1343 385 239 33 0
OW 52 187 294 661 273 106 51 0
VODI 0 89 140 554 669 179 41 0
ODI 0 67 67 229 830 476 69 0
CDI 0 67 38 174 469 1230 129 0
VCDI 0 58 117 205 504 3053 8741 5328
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60622 18831 2025 1483 546 338 68 0
OW 52 236 286 410 359 136 54 0
VODI 0 157 271 453 515 207 54 0
ODI 0 72 101 329 558 393 81 0
CDI 0 69 44 218 602 1022 171 0
VCDI 0 197 166 273 550 3187 8636 5328

Date: 2015-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61982 18046 2318 1197 283 375 0 0
OW 52 129 306 765 301 143 0 0
VODI 0 70 120 585 913 221 6 0
ODI 0 45 46 244 639 514 19 0
CDI 0 59 40 128 431 1067 94 0
VCDI 0 22 75 182 493 3565 8912 4713
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61982 17729 2120 1410 557 483 0 0
OW 52 228 288 496 298 118 0 0
VODI 0 166 252 470 573 211 1 0
ODI 0 52 93 315 588 455 18 0
CDI 0 55 27 167 509 1094 163 0
VCDI 0 141 125 243 535 3524 8849 4713


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