Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-03-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 12 18 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 70 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 12 128 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 96 16 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 31 47 118 55 101 51
VCDI 0 0 10 122 273 1339 11123 18395
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 6 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 13 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 51 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 32 21 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 43 124 51 21
VCDI 0 0 0 99 189 1827 8618 20886
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 6 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 32 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 39 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 39 157 22 94
VCDI 0 0 0 48 169 1136 10263 20008
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 11 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 15 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 22 0 0 17
CDI 0 0 0 12 30 64 80 44
VCDI 0 0 0 6 123 881 11056 19698
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 12 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 13 0 0 24
CDI 0 0 0 12 41 60 79 42
VCDI 0 0 0 7 120 885 11057 19693

Date: 2015-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 13 7 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 15 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 13 2 3 1 0 0
ODI 0 4 12 17 42 41 0 0
CDI 0 2 11 42 66 168 57 37
VCDI 0 0 40 110 190 1440 9824 19906
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 17 10 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 14 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 15 3 0 1 0 0
ODI 0 4 10 14 39 41 0 0
CDI 0 2 9 32 66 159 49 46
VCDI 0 0 40 121 196 1449 9832 19897

Date: 2015-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 21 14 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 24 32 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 14 71 37 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 31 89 17 6 0
CDI 0 0 18 60 98 167 47 6
VCDI 0 0 0 30 166 814 8093 22198
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 12 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 11 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 17 40 11 4 0 0
ODI 0 3 12 28 61 16 7 0
CDI 0 0 20 46 88 126 67 5
VCDI 0 0 20 110 233 859 8072 22199

Date: 2015-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 32 14 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 15 49 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 17 60 47 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 52 53 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 22 51 88 128 25 10
VCDI 0 0 1 74 221 1051 9691 20325
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 21 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 10 5 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 12 56 60 9 0 0
ODI 0 3 15 39 47 32 2 0
CDI 0 0 23 68 89 163 53 8
VCDI 0 0 18 118 225 993 9661 20327

Date: 2015-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 54 9 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 25 50 30 1 0 0
VODI 0 16 18 76 67 14 0 0
ODI 0 13 14 61 60 35 4 0
CDI 0 5 29 64 78 119 43 16
VCDI 0 0 17 89 287 908 10162 19701
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 32 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 14 19 24 6 0 0
VODI 0 17 15 48 82 19 0 0
ODI 0 13 12 56 69 62 11 0
CDI 0 20 18 103 91 155 86 13
VCDI 0 8 50 114 256 835 10112 19704


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