Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-03-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 25 70 0 18
VCDI 0 0 0 33 358 4983 16308 24056
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 0 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 12 157 33 14
VCDI 0 0 0 40 406 5364 17167 22623
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 23 83 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 54 622 5459 17401 22164
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 3 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 51 62 0 20
VCDI 0 0 0 70 528 4757 16514 23810
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 4 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 69 63 1 28
VCDI 0 0 0 69 509 4756 16513 23802

Date: 2015-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 4 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 55 127 48 1
VCDI 0 0 0 64 380 3854 17521 23801
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 17 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 77 130 61 21
VCDI 0 0 0 64 345 3845 17508 23781

Date: 2015-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 22 66 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 67 376 4413 18738 22141
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 28 54 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 67 370 4425 18741 22141

Date: 2015-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 58 52 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 305 3917 17952 23527
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 36 115 137 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 326 3851 17834 23527

Date: 2015-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 18 36 34 2
VCDI 0 0 0 34 310 5113 17520 22798
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 21 115 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 305 5026 17508 22800


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