Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-03-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 14 44 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 324 3164 16800 25467
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 49 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 76 160 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 400 4119 16735 24210
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 25 1 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 118 165 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 70 439 6949 14885 23168
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 0 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 42 100 6 4
VCDI 0 0 0 39 383 5042 16555 23669
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 0 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 38 105 8 4
VCDI 0 0 0 38 387 5039 16553 23669

Date: 2015-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 11 107 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 344 5613 16485 23175
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 18 120 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 70 337 5600 16487 23175

Date: 2015-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 13 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 9 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 21 155 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 357 5261 16449 23517
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 7 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 18 158 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 363 5248 16439 23517

Date: 2015-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 2 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 56 65 0 3
VCDI 0 0 0 79 515 4734 16114 24241
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 10 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 52 111 1 4
VCDI 0 0 0 90 511 4674 16113 24240

Date: 2015-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 2 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 44 92 12 33
VCDI 0 0 0 33 463 4102 17590 23465
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 11 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 35 139 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 463 4037 17560 23498


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