Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-03-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60762 20111 1856 724 344 181 0 0
OW 52 495 515 488 278 72 0 0
VODI 0 120 345 742 466 135 1 0
ODI 0 78 106 349 455 255 14 0
CDI 0 61 109 293 626 870 238 143
VCDI 0 4 76 397 1329 9296 36154 48508
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59770 20392 2120 1237 626 228 0 0
OW 52 483 461 377 429 114 0 0
VODI 0 164 349 536 423 183 7 0
ODI 0 65 134 305 440 360 23 0
CDI 0 50 80 321 636 1183 143 12
VCDI 0 27 52 333 1470 10473 33923 49067
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60841 20010 1992 1286 362 266 0 0
OW 51 166 467 787 327 89 0 0
VODI 0 61 185 634 778 151 10 0
ODI 0 20 125 177 857 369 40 0
CDI 0 0 44 230 819 2043 257 9
VCDI 0 0 5 240 1165 13802 34119 44264
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56354 23951 2822 960 275 231 2 0
OW 52 229 503 641 295 90 8 0
VODI 0 109 185 670 539 178 13 0
ODI 0 28 117 281 650 315 31 0
CDI 0 6 99 244 631 980 291 77
VCDI 0 0 3 199 1197 10912 36149 46731
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56354 23930 2849 996 300 242 2 0
OW 52 250 456 598 260 81 8 0
VODI 0 105 202 660 544 173 12 0
ODI 0 27 104 293 638 341 28 0
CDI 0 11 104 225 654 1001 310 76
VCDI 0 0 14 223 1191 10868 36134 46732

Date: 2015-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57903 21780 2560 1305 375 264 0 0
OW 52 186 360 583 374 117 7 0
VODI 0 53 277 581 517 230 17 0
ODI 0 16 64 306 541 292 69 0
CDI 0 2 55 295 725 860 342 13
VCDI 0 0 29 224 1056 11947 34053 48618
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57903 21807 2612 1307 383 266 0 0
OW 52 162 318 614 305 102 7 0
VODI 0 47 268 528 506 235 19 0
ODI 0 18 58 343 599 289 53 0
CDI 0 3 55 236 787 867 322 26
VCDI 0 0 34 266 1008 11951 34087 48605

Date: 2015-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57611 21059 3271 1240 308 261 0 0
OW 52 140 349 785 246 93 0 0
VODI 0 42 147 830 687 140 0 0
ODI 0 7 96 282 853 409 2 0
CDI 0 0 8 240 622 1862 306 12
VCDI 0 0 0 121 873 10304 35603 48187
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57611 20929 3196 1500 408 305 0 0
OW 52 149 250 591 358 132 0 0
VODI 0 86 190 574 611 241 2 0
ODI 0 42 85 267 527 450 28 0
CDI 0 39 75 190 552 1291 278 25
VCDI 0 3 75 376 1133 10650 35603 48174

Date: 2015-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58427 20324 2585 1673 462 230 20 0
OW 53 104 223 651 298 112 16 0
VODI 0 47 134 585 614 196 12 0
ODI 0 2 57 310 725 499 27 0
CDI 0 0 21 206 735 1388 314 86
VCDI 0 0 0 160 1354 9303 34838 50257
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58428 20288 2544 1767 588 273 18 0
OW 52 95 239 554 343 146 26 0
VODI 0 67 112 558 630 253 15 0
ODI 0 27 52 258 530 558 37 0
CDI 0 0 64 184 659 1132 192 87
VCDI 0 0 9 264 1438 9366 34939 50256

Date: 2015-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59019 19523 2720 1636 476 214 4 0
OW 53 116 356 568 335 155 22 0
VODI 0 41 213 464 672 257 27 0
ODI 0 4 97 375 645 490 22 0
CDI 0 0 35 280 743 1407 264 42
VCDI 0 0 16 240 1315 9076 35444 49682
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59020 19522 2708 1721 609 289 7 0
OW 52 116 330 545 347 131 36 0
VODI 0 42 234 458 657 259 24 0
ODI 0 4 104 319 642 486 29 1
CDI 0 0 44 251 629 1540 211 106
VCDI 0 0 17 269 1302 8894 35476 49617


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