Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-03-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 11 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 7 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 10 9 2 14 0 0
ODI 0 1 13 16 12 28 3 0
CDI 0 0 18 26 60 137 64 5
VCDI 0 0 18 139 423 1171 9295 20579
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 20 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 6 0 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 13 7 43 6 0 0
ODI 0 14 14 30 57 31 2 0
CDI 0 2 29 46 103 160 54 47
VCDI 0 0 30 183 419 1107 11816 17798
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 60 15 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 17 58 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 14 91 97 10 0 0
ODI 0 2 20 46 144 75 4 0
CDI 0 0 38 91 181 214 107 120
VCDI 0 0 5 251 341 1377 10235 18420
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 36 14 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 18 5 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 56 124 55 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 86 122 59 7 0
CDI 0 0 31 97 123 228 174 111
VCDI 0 0 2 234 441 1559 11516 16908
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 46 18 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 30 9 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 42 134 45 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 77 117 61 5 0
CDI 0 0 31 103 149 220 183 125
VCDI 0 0 0 223 430 1566 11509 16894

Date: 2015-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 20 17 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 11 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 15 143 25 9 0 0
ODI 0 3 17 124 79 31 4 0
CDI 0 0 25 97 110 106 140 128
VCDI 0 0 0 151 325 782 9331 20364
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 24 19 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 12 29 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 20 130 18 9 0 0
ODI 0 1 13 121 76 30 3 0
CDI 0 0 21 106 128 109 140 124
VCDI 0 0 0 138 317 780 9332 20368

Date: 2015-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 82 54 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 33 65 147 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 72 155 58 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 42 64 107 65 9 0
CDI 0 0 23 73 92 468 91 7
VCDI 0 0 0 98 202 984 9888 19164
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 62 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 43 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 55 116 5 3 1 0
ODI 0 15 31 128 37 47 11 0
CDI 0 22 20 80 132 126 74 15
VCDI 0 14 104 208 285 1345 9902 19156

Date: 2015-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 45 46 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 38 111 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 22 182 54 6 0 0
ODI 0 7 30 51 114 74 3 0
CDI 0 0 69 53 69 306 179 15
VCDI 0 0 6 119 254 1752 12470 15978
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 26 8 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 12 16 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 60 116 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 11 126 26 37 1 0
CDI 0 15 15 87 76 183 156 9
VCDI 0 0 101 178 387 1918 12495 15984

Date: 2015-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 12 18 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 70 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 12 128 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 96 16 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 31 47 118 55 101 51
VCDI 0 0 10 122 273 1339 11123 18395
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 9 5 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 13 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 59 22 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 25 69 14 0 2 0
CDI 0 0 10 121 36 64 145 64
VCDI 0 0 46 200 372 1331 11077 18382


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