Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-03-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58264 20789 2493 1110 255 36 0 0
OW 54 373 242 389 273 67 0 0
VODI 0 195 149 376 459 134 0 0
ODI 0 94 97 229 419 394 10 0
CDI 0 72 87 206 509 970 104 0
VCDI 0 104 163 385 667 4077 9730 5125
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59959 19595 2012 1055 260 86 0 0
OW 54 386 267 356 287 69 0 0
VODI 0 155 245 378 397 121 0 0
ODI 0 66 133 281 413 242 3 0
CDI 0 63 100 239 590 852 224 1
VCDI 0 92 203 359 767 4036 9104 5650
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55752 23223 3076 934 166 122 0 0
OW 53 366 374 616 201 87 0 0
VODI 0 244 162 569 458 131 0 0
ODI 0 83 70 270 456 282 1 0
CDI 0 105 72 152 574 1194 151 0
VCDI 0 16 124 272 609 3947 9549 4639
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58093 20663 3296 1168 312 150 0 0
OW 53 439 406 544 320 114 0 0
VODI 0 232 156 496 388 243 0 0
ODI 0 96 55 259 361 350 5 0
CDI 0 58 80 170 338 910 88 0
VCDI 0 3 173 331 604 3862 9606 4678
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58093 20722 3347 1212 326 162 0 0
OW 53 390 344 481 294 102 0 0
VODI 0 225 171 515 399 259 0 0
ODI 0 98 50 263 347 319 6 0
CDI 0 53 88 157 328 840 92 0
VCDI 0 3 166 340 629 3947 9601 4678

Date: 2015-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58692 21684 1777 973 304 140 0 0
OW 52 706 430 417 352 72 0 0
VODI 0 287 303 358 399 123 3 0
ODI 0 101 90 266 441 238 13 0
CDI 0 111 65 230 551 757 64 0
VCDI 0 83 188 337 789 4419 8624 4661
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58691 21766 1843 1031 325 158 0 0
OW 53 623 365 360 303 62 0 0
VODI 0 285 298 368 439 131 2 0
ODI 0 116 77 253 403 232 12 0
CDI 0 97 91 204 515 694 55 0
VCDI 0 85 179 365 851 4472 8635 4661

Date: 2015-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58335 22402 2366 827 286 183 0 0
OW 52 274 627 584 254 67 1 0
VODI 0 91 137 578 421 113 10 0
ODI 0 60 137 318 476 260 43 0
CDI 0 0 48 272 680 1176 181 0
VCDI 0 0 0 153 456 3939 9390 3903
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58335 21654 1969 910 443 238 0 0
OW 52 643 519 360 321 80 12 0
VODI 0 288 413 362 259 170 45 0
ODI 0 106 149 305 240 225 59 0
CDI 0 82 105 275 468 630 129 0
VCDI 0 54 160 520 842 4395 9380 3903

Date: 2015-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58581 21323 2346 1092 316 222 48 0
OW 52 333 534 608 315 70 13 0
VODI 0 90 210 511 413 188 28 0
ODI 0 77 112 222 340 342 47 0
CDI 0 2 70 259 439 1035 122 0
VCDI 0 0 0 179 599 3910 9412 4640
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58581 20551 1943 983 471 298 62 0
OW 52 623 386 457 343 144 32 0
VODI 0 399 495 421 215 241 48 0
ODI 0 97 212 325 190 283 43 0
CDI 0 94 132 301 310 756 105 0
VCDI 0 61 104 384 893 4045 9380 4640

Date: 2015-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60762 20085 1841 724 344 181 0 0
OW 52 487 498 484 276 72 0 0
VODI 0 108 290 625 426 125 0 0
ODI 0 78 76 239 380 205 2 0
CDI 0 61 97 167 504 647 20 0
VCDI 0 4 76 188 709 4886 8314 5067
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60761 19397 1569 673 498 280 0 0
OW 53 618 390 361 312 93 0 0
VODI 0 465 371 417 269 127 0 0
ODI 0 176 230 334 247 175 4 0
CDI 0 76 157 323 382 515 49 0
VCDI 0 91 161 319 931 4926 8283 5067


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