Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-03-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58264 20789 2493 1110 255 36 0 0
OW 54 373 242 391 273 77 0 0
VODI 0 195 149 381 460 179 6 0
ODI 0 94 101 232 432 434 17 0
CDI 0 72 89 212 545 1182 168 7
VCDI 0 104 179 565 1289 7746 36905 50948
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59959 19595 2012 1055 260 86 0 0
OW 54 386 267 357 287 70 0 0
VODI 0 155 245 381 403 131 0 0
ODI 0 66 134 286 439 262 4 0
CDI 0 63 103 248 694 999 270 26
VCDI 0 92 206 494 1390 8426 35259 51884
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55752 23223 3076 934 166 122 0 0
OW 53 366 374 618 201 87 0 0
VODI 0 244 162 572 461 134 0 0
ODI 0 83 70 278 465 345 7 0
CDI 0 105 72 169 627 1339 223 4
VCDI 0 16 124 408 1184 8329 34880 51775
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58093 20666 3299 1168 312 150 0 0
OW 53 442 410 547 320 114 0 0
VODI 0 236 162 505 388 249 0 0
ODI 0 97 65 269 368 374 5 0
CDI 0 58 93 186 396 1024 122 7
VCDI 0 3 188 454 1257 8846 37691 48431
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58093 20725 3349 1212 326 162 0 0
OW 53 393 348 483 294 102 0 0
VODI 0 229 177 521 399 262 0 0
ODI 0 99 62 270 349 339 6 0
CDI 0 53 101 178 384 930 126 6
VCDI 0 3 180 465 1289 8962 37686 48432

Date: 2015-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58692 21700 1781 973 304 140 0 0
OW 52 716 439 417 352 72 0 0
VODI 0 301 314 366 413 133 3 0
ODI 0 102 108 285 475 267 18 0
CDI 0 111 88 257 647 980 137 11
VCDI 0 83 212 516 1438 9521 38550 46074
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58691 21781 1847 1031 325 158 0 0
OW 53 637 372 360 303 62 0 0
VODI 0 296 308 371 446 139 2 0
ODI 0 117 99 266 441 258 20 0
CDI 0 97 114 237 613 909 120 5
VCDI 0 85 202 549 1501 9587 38566 46080

Date: 2015-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58335 22447 2378 828 286 183 0 0
OW 52 317 651 617 258 67 1 0
VODI 0 103 149 673 504 117 10 0
ODI 0 67 154 359 629 323 44 0
CDI 0 1 87 376 897 1383 276 112
VCDI 0 0 1 360 935 7281 39156 46631
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58335 21683 1969 910 443 238 0 0
OW 52 670 524 366 329 80 12 0
VODI 0 315 426 402 300 176 45 0
ODI 0 119 169 366 322 275 61 0
CDI 0 88 127 338 640 814 213 105
VCDI 0 60 205 831 1475 7771 39156 46638

Date: 2015-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58581 21374 2358 1095 316 222 48 0
OW 52 358 557 649 329 71 13 0
VODI 0 94 251 635 490 208 29 0
ODI 0 77 136 276 489 388 56 0
CDI 0 2 92 375 637 1257 216 114
VCDI 0 0 0 441 1329 7925 36998 48510
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58581 20579 1945 983 471 298 62 0
OW 52 651 394 463 346 144 32 0
VODI 0 423 533 477 232 250 48 0
ODI 0 97 241 416 292 324 48 0
CDI 0 94 158 385 507 960 229 76
VCDI 0 61 123 747 1742 8095 36941 48548

Date: 2015-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60762 20111 1856 724 344 181 0 0
OW 52 495 515 488 278 72 0 0
VODI 0 120 345 742 466 135 1 0
ODI 0 78 106 349 455 255 14 0
CDI 0 61 109 293 626 870 238 143
VCDI 0 4 76 397 1329 9296 36154 48508
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60761 19415 1572 673 498 280 0 0
OW 53 632 405 364 312 93 0 0
VODI 0 479 403 442 277 133 0 0
ODI 0 176 269 443 299 216 28 0
CDI 0 76 194 454 478 716 247 24
VCDI 0 91 164 617 1634 9371 36132 48627


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