Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-02-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54306 24238 3227 867 266 36 0 0
OW 54 379 272 565 259 57 0 0
VODI 0 223 192 414 541 192 12 0
ODI 0 87 115 188 355 348 23 0
CDI 0 79 96 167 321 690 88 0
VCDI 0 195 158 541 947 4666 10002 3934
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55520 23136 2818 1018 306 24 0 0
OW 54 232 401 443 299 62 0 0
VODI 0 70 279 409 465 215 2 0
ODI 0 40 106 297 375 373 23 0
CDI 0 32 97 220 516 744 98 0
VCDI 0 14 178 393 1008 4458 9648 4727
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54482 23626 3412 1058 200 17 0 0
OW 54 342 343 475 182 45 0 0
VODI 0 135 201 470 461 110 0 0
ODI 0 31 111 316 511 420 0 0
CDI 0 36 147 209 439 947 52 0
VCDI 0 0 65 254 842 3797 10103 5207
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55422 22516 3332 1129 223 45 0 0
OW 54 404 230 475 197 66 0 0
VODI 0 227 188 371 491 112 0 0
ODI 0 67 134 231 478 304 0 0
CDI 0 82 119 205 579 1060 77 0
VCDI 0 51 164 412 677 3904 9737 5337
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55422 22485 3327 1156 242 62 0 0
OW 54 437 236 460 217 61 0 0
VODI 0 214 184 377 447 131 0 0
ODI 0 75 131 201 438 243 1 0
CDI 0 73 121 203 596 1048 64 0
VCDI 0 63 168 426 705 3946 9749 5337

Date: 2015-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55257 23522 2825 1041 227 55 0 0
OW 54 381 292 412 244 64 0 0
VODI 0 161 197 402 424 114 0 0
ODI 0 76 96 295 443 253 1 0
CDI 0 73 66 253 732 747 144 0
VCDI 0 63 188 304 748 3669 10058 5219
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55257 23470 2790 1085 264 78 0 0
OW 54 401 315 372 243 70 0 0
VODI 0 160 201 396 419 116 0 0
ODI 0 83 98 282 382 243 0 0
CDI 0 71 70 245 721 717 113 0
VCDI 0 91 190 327 789 3678 10090 5219

Date: 2015-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59097 20023 2508 1186 208 131 0 0
OW 53 372 359 545 274 87 0 0
VODI 0 164 197 512 506 130 4 0
ODI 0 49 76 241 583 286 20 0
CDI 0 22 161 223 580 1318 184 0
VCDI 0 0 24 172 418 3388 9611 5388
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59096 19579 2325 1273 305 195 0 0
OW 54 457 216 351 310 98 4 0
VODI 0 228 251 333 373 185 18 0
ODI 0 165 144 233 325 267 39 0
CDI 0 94 88 272 558 829 152 0
VCDI 0 107 301 417 698 3766 9606 5388

Date: 2015-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60374 19548 2387 949 302 74 0 0
OW 53 436 329 526 266 68 0 0
VODI 0 264 133 564 438 135 0 0
ODI 0 99 37 311 422 263 0 0
CDI 0 80 73 179 503 927 19 0
VCDI 0 9 144 300 771 4521 9024 4572
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60348 19099 2183 1010 355 146 0 0
OW 79 391 253 357 277 108 0 0
VODI 0 332 225 389 390 204 0 0
ODI 0 198 96 332 297 352 1 0
CDI 0 205 54 276 467 734 56 0
VCDI 0 211 292 465 916 4444 8986 4572

Date: 2015-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59272 20843 2268 894 208 129 0 0
OW 53 558 466 532 265 56 0 0
VODI 0 232 250 478 407 121 0 0
ODI 0 88 72 285 441 237 8 0
CDI 0 68 76 196 536 743 53 0
VCDI 0 22 173 318 736 4460 8794 4762
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59245 20291 2120 1113 343 245 0 0
OW 80 476 265 258 273 92 3 0
VODI 0 421 287 280 394 182 11 0
ODI 0 248 186 301 344 401 16 0
CDI 0 187 146 272 436 996 110 0
VCDI 0 188 301 479 803 3830 8715 4762


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