Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-02-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53014 22836 5100 1072 278 107 0 0
OW 56 228 350 517 171 90 0 0
VODI 0 89 216 564 330 124 16 0
ODI 0 41 77 342 394 178 24 0
CDI 0 20 97 214 527 503 51 1
VCDI 0 1 161 429 886 5904 9242 4850
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56494 21024 3445 1163 327 117 0 0
OW 56 313 349 438 232 108 0 0
VODI 0 159 231 436 415 175 0 0
ODI 0 77 113 255 344 296 7 0
CDI 0 66 56 242 314 700 56 0
VCDI 0 135 110 435 872 4968 9627 4945
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53958 24436 3899 934 177 32 0 0
OW 54 221 395 589 235 43 0 0
VODI 0 212 209 534 452 219 0 0
ODI 0 48 64 316 340 307 31 0
CDI 0 73 40 210 387 676 105 0
VCDI 0 43 98 425 851 5786 8321 4380
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57754 21650 2467 1019 314 24 0 0
OW 54 320 306 464 362 57 1 0
VODI 0 160 263 326 503 267 11 0
ODI 0 63 144 188 257 354 91 0
CDI 0 70 104 188 276 727 290 0
VCDI 0 83 178 587 905 5177 8865 4231
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57754 21724 2496 1030 324 19 0 0
OW 54 275 294 465 305 53 1 0
VODI 0 137 260 320 515 197 12 0
ODI 0 63 138 192 300 402 65 0
CDI 0 67 99 173 272 718 275 0
VCDI 0 80 175 592 901 5217 8905 4231

Date: 2015-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54785 23143 3611 1019 194 3 0 0
OW 54 345 305 534 299 29 1 0
VODI 0 160 182 498 527 157 7 0
ODI 0 68 96 263 426 317 8 0
CDI 0 77 46 196 601 743 27 0
VCDI 0 180 137 352 1102 5115 9275 4218
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54785 23242 3641 1049 206 2 0 0
OW 54 286 272 502 262 28 1 0
VODI 0 129 175 505 501 124 7 0
ODI 0 59 96 255 478 302 8 0
CDI 0 74 52 176 605 721 20 0
VCDI 0 183 141 375 1097 5187 9282 4218

Date: 2015-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52740 24724 3954 1121 279 28 0 0
OW 54 359 316 574 231 58 0 0
VODI 0 106 163 484 569 104 0 0
ODI 0 22 127 235 569 484 2 0
CDI 0 0 118 353 508 1173 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 90 620 4013 10260 4592
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52740 24743 3718 1269 404 46 0 0
OW 54 226 264 368 342 98 0 0
VODI 0 122 201 349 456 269 8 0
ODI 0 57 124 211 367 416 24 0
CDI 0 37 126 174 388 979 114 0
VCDI 0 26 245 486 819 4052 10186 4592

Date: 2015-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53114 24923 3436 970 213 35 0 0
OW 54 312 344 451 216 58 0 0
VODI 0 133 230 423 430 118 0 0
ODI 0 22 98 310 497 303 1 0
CDI 0 18 110 311 448 891 16 0
VCDI 0 0 34 405 787 4221 9943 5225
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53114 24937 3308 1129 394 108 0 0
OW 54 183 280 317 322 114 0 0
VODI 0 149 213 334 444 252 2 0
ODI 0 53 125 243 354 396 30 0
CDI 0 41 112 184 322 782 66 0
VCDI 0 45 214 663 755 3974 9862 5225

Date: 2015-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58264 20789 2493 1110 255 36 0 0
OW 54 373 242 389 273 67 0 0
VODI 0 195 149 376 459 134 0 0
ODI 0 94 97 229 419 394 10 0
CDI 0 72 87 206 509 970 104 0
VCDI 0 104 163 385 667 4077 9730 5125
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58264 20558 2450 1369 585 151 0 0
OW 54 215 184 273 401 194 4 0
VODI 0 199 153 282 377 363 17 0
ODI 0 116 81 205 313 490 54 0
CDI 0 89 109 160 266 821 243 0
VCDI 0 450 254 406 640 3659 9526 5125


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