Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-02-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53014 22836 5100 1072 278 107 0 0
OW 56 228 350 517 171 90 0 0
VODI 0 89 216 564 330 124 16 0
ODI 0 41 77 342 416 186 25 0
CDI 0 20 97 214 548 576 75 97
VCDI 0 1 161 482 1192 11526 37237 48577
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56494 21024 3445 1163 327 117 0 0
OW 56 313 349 438 232 108 0 0
VODI 0 159 231 436 415 175 0 0
ODI 0 77 113 255 366 301 7 0
CDI 0 66 56 242 333 783 91 56
VCDI 0 135 110 517 1221 9660 38677 48500
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53958 24436 3899 934 177 32 0 0
OW 54 221 395 589 235 43 0 0
VODI 0 212 209 534 452 219 0 0
ODI 0 48 64 316 340 309 31 0
CDI 0 73 40 210 392 792 123 1
VCDI 0 43 98 509 1223 10986 40399 44452
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57754 21650 2467 1019 314 24 0 0
OW 54 320 306 464 362 57 1 0
VODI 0 160 263 326 503 267 11 0
ODI 0 63 144 190 263 395 91 0
CDI 0 70 106 198 302 996 361 2
VCDI 0 83 193 792 1491 10835 40764 43387
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57754 21724 2496 1030 324 19 0 0
OW 54 275 294 465 305 53 1 0
VODI 0 137 260 320 515 197 12 0
ODI 0 63 138 194 305 442 65 0
CDI 0 67 101 182 297 982 353 1
VCDI 0 80 190 798 1489 10881 40797 43388

Date: 2015-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54785 23143 3611 1019 194 3 0 0
OW 54 345 305 534 299 29 1 0
VODI 0 160 182 498 527 157 7 0
ODI 0 68 96 263 430 333 8 0
CDI 0 77 46 200 617 862 43 36
VCDI 0 180 137 462 1672 11264 37594 46807
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54785 23242 3641 1049 206 2 0 0
OW 54 286 272 502 262 28 1 0
VODI 0 129 175 505 501 124 7 0
ODI 0 59 96 256 479 319 8 0
CDI 0 74 52 179 623 839 34 29
VCDI 0 183 141 485 1668 11336 37603 46814

Date: 2015-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52740 24724 3954 1121 279 28 0 0
OW 54 359 318 576 231 58 0 0
VODI 0 106 168 488 569 107 0 0
ODI 0 22 131 239 571 563 2 0
CDI 0 0 135 376 539 1403 125 7
VCDI 0 0 16 201 1220 9770 39438 46410
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52740 24743 3718 1269 404 46 0 0
OW 54 226 264 368 342 98 0 0
VODI 0 122 201 350 456 276 8 0
ODI 0 57 124 214 369 480 24 0
CDI 0 37 129 183 399 1198 167 12
VCDI 0 26 286 617 1439 9831 39366 46405

Date: 2015-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53114 24923 3436 970 213 35 0 0
OW 54 312 344 453 216 58 0 0
VODI 0 133 231 427 430 135 0 0
ODI 0 22 101 314 502 353 1 0
CDI 0 18 115 318 489 1129 66 0
VCDI 0 0 50 519 1386 9195 38361 48625
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53114 24937 3308 1129 394 108 0 0
OW 54 183 280 317 322 114 0 0
VODI 0 149 213 334 445 256 2 0
ODI 0 53 125 244 357 438 31 0
CDI 0 41 112 189 363 994 128 3
VCDI 0 45 239 788 1355 8995 38267 48622

Date: 2015-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58264 20789 2493 1110 255 36 0 0
OW 54 373 242 391 273 77 0 0
VODI 0 195 149 381 460 179 6 0
ODI 0 94 101 232 432 434 17 0
CDI 0 72 89 212 545 1182 168 7
VCDI 0 104 179 565 1289 7746 36905 50948
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58264 20558 2450 1369 585 151 0 0
OW 54 215 184 273 401 194 4 0
VODI 0 199 153 282 377 399 17 0
ODI 0 116 81 210 317 521 57 0
CDI 0 89 111 165 295 989 292 4
VCDI 0 450 274 592 1279 7400 36726 50951


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