Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-02-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-02-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54140 23406 4767 1068 307 68 0 0
OW 53 428 260 438 309 65 0 0
VODI 0 344 192 423 388 242 0 0
ODI 0 182 126 221 379 280 2 0
CDI 0 119 138 147 670 710 67 28
VCDI 0 151 247 639 1483 12598 39635 42328
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56327 20879 4603 1159 304 69 0 0
OW 54 215 357 446 350 42 0 0
VODI 0 183 253 421 434 218 0 0
ODI 0 95 165 250 382 277 0 0
CDI 0 47 126 191 820 670 76 4
VCDI 0 116 308 648 1833 12909 40772 41045
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51825 24444 5132 1275 324 98 0 0
OW 54 162 372 508 169 84 0 0
VODI 0 104 216 507 483 134 0 0
ODI 0 37 121 221 507 310 0 0
CDI 0 28 87 203 498 1066 30 39
VCDI 0 57 156 538 1613 12854 39197 43595
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53769 22340 4759 1214 263 103 0 0
OW 56 246 332 496 188 102 0 0
VODI 0 128 187 456 384 147 2 0
ODI 0 90 60 309 446 226 18 0
CDI 0 83 32 239 442 709 150 30
VCDI 0 113 99 419 1386 12400 39903 44722
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53769 22395 4768 1264 295 120 0 0
OW 56 203 330 475 186 89 0 0
VODI 0 131 187 420 360 144 1 0
ODI 0 85 55 312 409 234 20 0
CDI 0 76 28 230 454 686 139 26
VCDI 0 110 101 432 1405 12414 39913 44726

Date: 2015-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53480 22290 5214 1130 306 98 0 0
OW 56 201 382 530 205 85 0 0
VODI 0 51 263 552 373 142 1 0
ODI 0 20 103 325 405 221 17 0
CDI 0 16 109 194 515 656 88 45
VCDI 0 6 185 445 1153 10723 36928 49535
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53480 22316 5286 1246 339 114 0 0
OW 56 166 321 489 199 79 0 0
VODI 0 50 240 508 395 150 2 0
ODI 0 22 107 290 395 227 15 0
CDI 0 17 115 171 486 614 78 47
VCDI 0 13 187 472 1143 10741 36939 49533

Date: 2015-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54349 23285 4344 923 214 89 0 0
OW 54 168 357 748 158 74 0 0
VODI 0 150 121 675 460 176 6 0
ODI 0 32 35 274 417 367 28 0
CDI 0 97 86 190 422 816 143 2
VCDI 0 0 36 343 938 9300 38674 48497
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54348 23252 3858 993 331 145 0 0
OW 55 193 530 371 111 134 5 0
VODI 0 94 292 540 249 204 21 0
ODI 0 55 113 366 297 206 35 0
CDI 0 42 59 315 425 652 114 0
VCDI 0 96 127 568 1196 9481 38676 48499

Date: 2015-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54736 24347 3354 723 222 21 0 0
OW 54 336 407 501 199 50 0 0
VODI 0 161 309 431 451 178 8 0
ODI 0 68 119 245 361 288 43 0
CDI 0 72 81 242 297 798 239 0
VCDI 0 99 200 685 1438 11167 40917 43201
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54736 24189 3207 689 191 10 0 0
OW 54 339 295 446 181 25 0 0
VODI 0 263 310 434 429 104 0 0
ODI 0 118 212 187 403 323 53 0
CDI 0 105 154 213 273 714 288 1
VCDI 0 69 292 858 1491 11326 40866 43200

Date: 2015-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54306 24238 3227 867 266 36 0 0
OW 54 379 272 565 259 57 0 0
VODI 0 223 192 414 543 192 12 0
ODI 0 87 115 192 369 362 23 0
CDI 0 79 97 178 359 889 143 23
VCDI 0 195 179 735 1637 11059 40161 44064
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54306 23947 3116 1048 481 156 0 0
OW 54 384 162 428 293 174 0 0
VODI 0 311 212 264 371 318 0 0
ODI 0 179 154 175 240 463 65 0
CDI 0 136 175 266 249 758 304 0
VCDI 0 244 263 770 1799 10726 39970 44087


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