Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-02-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-01-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54730 24284 3741 1402 175 119 72 0
OW 53 176 257 667 203 46 6 0
VODI 0 146 117 417 472 88 3 0
ODI 0 58 77 203 488 152 27 0
CDI 0 31 53 176 651 977 173 5
VCDI 0 10 91 258 958 9273 38271 47942
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51961 26372 4353 1002 262 131 21 0
OW 53 155 378 532 172 80 18 0
VODI 0 128 132 480 402 131 5 0
ODI 0 109 57 224 444 185 31 0
CDI 0 89 39 153 664 607 132 6
VCDI 0 32 128 283 918 8666 35618 51895
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53772 22108 7024 1117 148 28 0 0
OW 53 95 443 494 275 35 0 0
VODI 0 35 174 465 512 144 0 0
ODI 0 18 59 215 514 206 10 0
CDI 0 3 65 174 659 870 57 42
VCDI 0 0 41 269 1302 10321 34713 50588
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54834 24261 3334 1091 417 72 0 0
OW 53 345 297 461 332 90 0 0
VODI 0 208 255 366 423 234 0 0
ODI 0 98 131 231 389 293 0 0
CDI 0 58 122 226 676 954 49 1
VCDI 0 96 152 495 1370 12932 41448 40254
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54834 24288 3343 1101 420 79 0 0
OW 53 321 263 460 321 82 0 0
VODI 0 197 268 346 411 223 0 0
ODI 0 94 138 244 379 295 0 0
CDI 0 70 101 216 695 964 41 1
VCDI 0 96 178 503 1381 12932 41456 40254

Date: 2015-02-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53779 24478 3821 1177 331 88 0 0
OW 54 323 250 460 322 48 0 0
VODI 0 300 162 377 433 199 0 0
ODI 0 168 97 254 370 266 3 0
CDI 0 116 86 174 685 841 66 24
VCDI 0 176 329 694 1782 13946 39246 41123
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53779 24489 3813 1214 373 92 0 0
OW 54 309 266 425 285 44 0 0
VODI 0 299 149 403 400 220 0 0
ODI 0 156 103 235 417 248 3 0
CDI 0 130 91 177 621 727 72 19
VCDI 0 178 323 682 1827 14057 39240 41128

Date: 2015-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52095 23159 6599 1206 367 61 0 0
OW 54 201 349 585 191 67 0 0
VODI 0 151 176 536 542 109 0 0
ODI 0 20 91 181 751 222 0 0
CDI 0 9 99 183 675 1011 43 48
VCDI 0 94 146 383 1738 13223 41898 39785
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52095 22898 6319 1269 484 83 0 0
OW 54 174 323 530 285 81 0 0
VODI 0 175 219 360 552 200 0 0
ODI 0 120 150 153 478 261 0 0
CDI 0 97 112 174 620 806 24 46
VCDI 0 170 337 588 1845 13262 41917 39787

Date: 2015-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53358 22315 5569 1139 305 90 0 0
OW 55 239 300 492 193 75 0 0
VODI 0 149 190 541 370 134 0 0
ODI 0 89 78 249 496 238 2 0
CDI 0 77 37 196 505 850 78 37
VCDI 0 103 140 497 1677 12224 40341 43620
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53359 22141 5540 1284 422 100 0 0
OW 54 237 235 456 240 130 0 0
VODI 0 177 181 409 420 213 6 0
ODI 0 107 104 197 427 381 20 0
CDI 0 116 65 197 485 891 120 29
VCDI 0 194 189 571 1552 11896 40275 43628

Date: 2015-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53014 22836 5100 1072 278 107 0 0
OW 56 228 350 517 171 90 0 0
VODI 0 89 216 564 330 124 16 0
ODI 0 41 77 342 416 186 25 0
CDI 0 20 97 214 548 576 75 97
VCDI 0 1 161 482 1192 11526 37237 48577
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53015 22848 5089 1336 522 192 0 0
OW 55 164 263 394 246 206 7 0
VODI 0 97 229 389 351 269 37 0
ODI 0 52 93 287 316 359 68 0
CDI 0 37 111 229 342 717 173 94
VCDI 0 17 216 556 1158 10866 37068 48580


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