Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-01-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59991 20401 3291 1020 140 165 6 0
OW 52 179 291 760 80 12 0 0
VODI 0 65 195 648 366 20 0 0
ODI 0 27 101 363 455 137 0 0
CDI 0 10 73 281 633 811 108 20
VCDI 0 0 71 363 1221 9635 35738 49319
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56794 22869 4221 586 135 107 0 0
OW 53 174 569 491 93 16 0 0
VODI 0 119 368 616 221 48 0 0
ODI 0 44 129 401 357 107 7 0
CDI 0 28 81 368 391 710 134 10
VCDI 0 5 136 494 1273 10244 41029 43620
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61551 20507 2552 856 116 90 17 0
OW 52 167 337 632 163 26 1 0
VODI 0 99 167 545 369 24 0 0
ODI 0 59 83 313 426 105 4 0
CDI 0 34 96 195 574 822 71 0
VCDI 0 8 59 244 1293 9587 33752 51052
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60037 21048 2527 1048 144 103 67 0
OW 52 186 318 650 179 20 9 0
VODI 0 93 144 501 421 63 9 0
ODI 0 39 76 272 419 183 14 0
CDI 0 38 37 222 647 893 124 10
VCDI 0 18 113 276 1072 9046 37067 48863
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60037 21078 2534 1099 151 102 58 0
OW 52 167 310 583 198 20 19 0
VODI 0 78 132 475 441 67 8 0
ODI 0 43 84 302 379 203 14 0
CDI 0 39 40 226 605 932 145 12
VCDI 0 17 115 284 1108 8984 37046 48861

Date: 2015-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56485 22973 3330 1077 249 134 64 0
OW 53 173 243 561 217 62 3 0
VODI 0 135 112 442 459 104 6 0
ODI 0 95 50 222 434 175 27 0
CDI 0 71 47 148 611 829 187 24
VCDI 0 6 89 285 928 9294 36365 50279
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56485 22999 3345 1135 265 133 49 0
OW 53 162 236 531 242 60 18 0
VODI 0 137 102 425 468 110 9 0
ODI 0 86 47 208 443 186 22 0
CDI 0 67 55 145 580 828 186 49
VCDI 0 2 86 291 900 9281 36368 50254

Date: 2015-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53600 25461 4014 1106 198 45 0 0
OW 53 162 334 664 232 38 2 0
VODI 0 45 110 513 437 164 15 0
ODI 0 23 64 203 547 182 23 0
CDI 0 0 65 171 681 746 100 21
VCDI 0 0 28 212 890 10097 34210 51592
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53600 25259 3876 1228 299 99 4 0
OW 53 148 288 520 231 80 34 0
VODI 0 123 160 357 518 146 2 0
ODI 0 100 65 212 444 236 26 0
CDI 0 53 75 238 490 736 103 16
VCDI 0 8 151 314 1003 9975 34181 51597

Date: 2015-02-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55893 23786 3231 1124 260 29 0 0
OW 53 215 222 543 348 55 0 0
VODI 0 117 88 475 466 160 0 0
ODI 0 43 80 194 487 248 2 0
CDI 0 19 87 128 854 800 42 16
VCDI 0 41 100 255 1181 12943 36799 45664
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55892 23501 3088 1092 306 96 0 0
OW 54 226 237 422 269 97 0 0
VODI 0 175 126 490 389 159 0 0
ODI 0 116 66 248 406 269 5 0
CDI 0 98 72 166 737 797 38 12
VCDI 0 105 219 301 1489 12817 36800 45668

Date: 2015-02-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54140 23406 4767 1068 307 68 0 0
OW 53 428 260 438 309 65 0 0
VODI 0 344 192 423 388 242 0 0
ODI 0 182 126 221 379 280 2 0
CDI 0 119 138 147 670 710 67 28
VCDI 0 151 247 639 1483 12598 39635 42328
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54140 23305 4802 1211 382 104 0 0
OW 53 334 186 447 306 126 0 0
VODI 0 273 143 308 491 231 5 0
ODI 0 183 102 181 294 412 9 0
CDI 0 192 70 126 487 994 145 0
VCDI 0 343 427 663 1576 12096 39545 42356


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