Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-01-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59642 20576 3188 1174 175 156 37 0
OW 52 192 238 675 108 31 3 0
VODI 0 123 138 633 379 40 8 0
ODI 0 57 42 374 464 91 20 0
CDI 0 38 49 224 1044 555 43 4
VCDI 0 0 108 310 1322 11683 36817 46235
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61321 18810 3176 823 185 216 6 0
OW 53 185 303 635 98 42 4 0
VODI 0 134 140 712 191 54 19 0
ODI 0 30 117 452 400 82 30 0
CDI 0 3 101 332 944 450 127 13
VCDI 0 0 28 4659 3281 10152 31874 46866
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59339 21207 3150 1305 153 134 27 0
OW 52 114 244 701 108 13 11 0
VODI 0 22 117 605 407 38 15 0
ODI 0 3 57 363 476 143 47 0
CDI 0 0 8 303 817 589 83 0
VCDI 0 0 14 151 1211 9949 36581 48491
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61482 19322 2977 1030 162 155 12 0
OW 52 133 212 838 86 18 0 0
VODI 0 45 108 749 347 28 2 0
ODI 0 9 54 342 532 126 16 0
CDI 0 0 31 229 759 609 34 6
VCDI 0 0 40 222 1194 9624 36091 49372
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61482 19410 2978 1123 176 163 12 0
OW 52 74 206 746 98 16 0 0
VODI 0 22 127 760 367 47 10 0
ODI 0 3 56 339 486 129 8 0
CDI 0 0 14 229 746 631 38 8
VCDI 0 0 41 213 1207 9574 36087 49370

Date: 2015-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58435 22045 3201 843 147 165 0 0
OW 53 192 418 601 98 14 0 0
VODI 0 95 239 613 312 33 0 0
ODI 0 55 106 335 482 138 41 0
CDI 0 50 68 237 670 623 133 16
VCDI 0 27 159 433 1396 10372 37329 46874
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58436 22057 3225 959 163 170 0 0
OW 52 209 374 554 118 13 0 0
VODI 0 83 254 584 332 42 2 0
ODI 0 54 108 281 474 165 54 0
CDI 0 47 68 211 661 640 126 37
VCDI 0 14 162 473 1357 10315 37321 46853

Date: 2015-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57813 23672 3425 785 117 102 14 0
OW 52 129 396 743 61 24 1 0
VODI 0 55 142 673 349 17 0 0
ODI 0 45 46 308 501 82 5 0
CDI 0 12 99 227 600 730 21 0
VCDI 0 0 13 203 1149 9338 37570 47529
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57813 23284 3026 705 138 122 15 0
OW 52 280 462 475 86 14 0 0
VODI 0 145 306 538 281 51 3 0
ODI 0 80 101 397 328 138 9 0
CDI 0 70 70 378 492 498 54 15
VCDI 0 54 156 446 1452 9470 37530 47514

Date: 2015-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59831 21833 2398 946 194 117 35 0
OW 52 202 383 552 194 15 8 0
VODI 0 101 203 462 395 60 10 0
ODI 0 61 72 350 334 164 24 0
CDI 0 65 34 280 476 848 169 1
VCDI 0 12 118 280 1107 9548 34369 50745
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59831 21357 2357 949 264 145 43 0
OW 52 268 321 454 233 62 6 0
VODI 0 179 199 524 331 162 27 0
ODI 0 94 93 302 255 222 82 0
CDI 0 116 61 250 500 841 218 9
VCDI 0 260 177 391 1117 9320 34239 50737

Date: 2015-01-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54730 24284 3741 1402 175 119 72 0
OW 53 176 257 667 203 46 6 0
VODI 0 146 117 417 472 88 3 0
ODI 0 58 77 203 488 152 27 0
CDI 0 31 53 176 651 977 173 5
VCDI 0 10 91 258 958 9273 38271 47942
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54730 24028 3663 1405 273 149 76 0
OW 53 179 183 512 201 59 8 0
VODI 0 136 155 470 397 101 19 0
ODI 0 81 98 213 457 275 48 0
CDI 0 66 70 127 641 1154 271 5
VCDI 0 215 167 396 978 8917 38130 47942


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