Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-01-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60792 22334 2241 895 135 56 4 0
OW 51 372 435 527 78 14 6 0
VODI 0 107 267 538 267 11 9 0
ODI 0 49 106 338 413 37 11 0
CDI 0 34 88 285 759 199 2 0
VCDI 0 4 67 237 1171 4184 7319 4658
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60648 21242 3136 651 164 102 29 0
OW 52 297 570 537 12 21 7 0
VODI 0 132 250 768 134 12 9 0
ODI 0 40 110 484 376 35 9 0
CDI 0 31 88 282 734 132 2 0
VCDI 0 12 76 218 1406 3562 8237 4493
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59536 22055 3117 1009 141 81 38 0
OW 52 174 276 796 60 15 0 0
VODI 0 48 171 746 320 21 5 0
ODI 0 6 71 275 746 64 16 0
CDI 0 0 61 197 1029 268 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 41 1056 3175 8462 4958
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58208 21652 3808 1098 219 133 35 0
OW 52 200 290 713 83 29 1 0
VODI 0 105 205 567 352 33 10 0
ODI 0 41 74 299 562 89 19 0
CDI 0 12 83 170 988 384 21 0
VCDI 0 0 44 185 1091 3397 8750 5098
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58208 21584 3820 1161 230 146 35 0
OW 52 217 275 670 84 21 5 0
VODI 0 132 195 548 335 29 11 0
ODI 0 56 75 289 565 75 12 0
CDI 0 21 80 172 928 353 23 0
VCDI 0 0 59 192 1153 3441 8750 5098

Date: 2015-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58716 22068 2707 927 178 182 29 0
OW 53 193 295 572 118 31 7 0
VODI 0 134 193 604 259 34 18 0
ODI 0 63 70 407 355 72 29 0
CDI 0 28 74 281 820 436 29 0
VCDI 0 0 62 211 1045 4192 8109 5499
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58716 22032 2729 986 188 198 32 0
OW 53 167 276 576 109 16 11 0
VODI 0 174 202 575 265 35 14 0
ODI 0 83 69 428 379 51 22 0
CDI 0 30 77 216 813 409 25 0
VCDI 0 0 48 221 1021 4238 8117 5499

Date: 2015-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58474 20817 4410 1147 137 88 17 0
OW 52 108 214 830 136 19 0 0
VODI 0 19 100 678 358 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 45 381 543 102 4 0
CDI 0 0 5 302 872 892 10 1
VCDI 0 0 0 117 1003 4777 7293 5106
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58473 20461 4241 985 161 110 17 0
OW 53 166 227 618 127 39 1 0
VODI 0 205 90 683 274 69 5 0
ODI 0 86 66 446 409 123 4 0
CDI 0 26 101 408 734 590 5 0
VCDI 0 0 49 315 1344 4990 7292 5107

Date: 2015-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59896 21040 2877 1087 144 143 48 0
OW 52 131 328 692 86 14 10 0
VODI 0 27 123 769 275 42 16 0
ODI 0 4 49 479 344 126 63 0
CDI 0 0 17 331 729 276 25 0
VCDI 0 0 9 140 1186 4588 7582 5352
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59895 20570 2685 998 162 146 67 0
OW 53 229 309 574 63 29 18 0
VODI 0 223 160 689 192 44 28 0
ODI 0 98 85 476 383 74 22 0
CDI 0 80 89 413 737 303 34 0
VCDI 0 2 75 348 1227 4593 7575 5352

Date: 2015-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59991 20401 3291 1020 140 165 6 0
OW 52 179 289 758 80 12 0 0
VODI 0 65 195 630 366 20 0 0
ODI 0 27 101 340 455 134 0 0
CDI 0 10 73 249 631 747 0 0
VCDI 0 0 71 285 850 4899 7911 4657
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59990 19918 2920 1019 183 182 6 0
OW 53 271 382 498 150 33 0 0
VODI 0 225 261 598 310 93 0 0
ODI 0 124 136 388 453 200 0 0
CDI 0 110 116 338 516 597 0 0
VCDI 0 34 205 441 910 4872 7911 4657


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