Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-01-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59209 23881 2704 768 119 147 4 0
OW 67 286 308 385 73 24 0 0
VODI 0 196 213 465 269 12 0 0
ODI 0 70 185 243 435 34 0 0
CDI 0 22 143 230 708 146 0 0
VCDI 0 2 111 504 1102 3984 7734 4317
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61232 20613 3676 565 101 143 0 0
OW 51 260 486 361 25 22 0 0
VODI 0 116 354 583 101 9 0 0
ODI 0 45 172 532 267 21 0 0
CDI 0 44 104 386 615 90 0 0
VCDI 0 54 124 621 1817 4025 7265 4220
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60540 22540 2990 931 130 91 0 0
OW 65 151 313 508 46 18 0 0
VODI 0 82 186 568 227 14 0 0
ODI 0 66 111 395 418 37 0 0
CDI 0 1 55 390 744 234 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 1264 3671 7338 4924
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59086 23936 2674 743 145 96 2 0
OW 51 240 443 584 52 19 0 0
VODI 0 104 227 520 236 14 8 0
ODI 0 48 107 352 400 39 3 0
CDI 0 17 116 303 736 191 0 0
VCDI 0 0 27 210 1152 3939 7645 4635
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59086 23922 2691 800 146 103 2 0
OW 51 235 397 554 44 13 0 0
VODI 0 108 255 491 220 11 6 0
ODI 0 47 103 339 388 35 5 0
CDI 0 33 93 304 725 189 0 0
VCDI 0 0 55 224 1198 3947 7645 4635

Date: 2015-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59696 22678 2829 821 155 91 17 0
OW 52 377 481 532 34 15 9 0
VODI 0 127 239 658 229 8 9 0
ODI 0 41 109 400 371 32 11 0
CDI 0 27 98 288 702 194 5 0
VCDI 0 1 67 253 1022 3694 8114 4614
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59696 22605 2908 906 159 97 19 0
OW 52 421 408 468 29 11 6 0
VODI 0 128 227 598 218 5 8 0
ODI 0 49 101 437 368 27 9 0
CDI 0 40 93 268 706 172 6 0
VCDI 0 8 86 275 1033 3722 8117 4614

Date: 2015-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63727 18940 2379 977 132 93 29 0
OW 51 224 406 766 39 19 0 0
VODI 0 28 198 775 287 20 0 0
ODI 0 6 61 275 777 75 3 0
CDI 0 0 38 227 993 370 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 870 3219 8555 4526
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63726 18682 2178 899 137 119 29 0
OW 52 257 397 597 60 15 0 0
VODI 0 132 207 627 224 13 2 0
ODI 0 62 86 406 457 65 2 0
CDI 0 33 94 262 845 173 1 0
VCDI 0 32 120 229 1375 3411 8568 4526

Date: 2015-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58781 22322 2964 1131 193 104 45 0
OW 52 206 312 643 106 22 0 0
VODI 0 97 233 631 314 35 3 0
ODI 0 21 72 320 599 111 21 0
CDI 0 6 78 233 878 313 23 0
VCDI 0 0 1 127 1072 3433 8267 5331
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58781 22142 2846 1028 199 132 45 0
OW 52 227 334 630 77 27 3 0
VODI 0 127 224 585 296 23 4 0
ODI 0 69 77 297 449 79 25 0
CDI 0 49 44 252 860 244 16 0
VCDI 0 38 135 293 1281 3513 8266 5331

Date: 2015-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59642 20576 3184 1171 175 156 37 0
OW 52 192 234 660 108 31 3 0
VODI 0 123 138 605 379 40 8 0
ODI 0 57 42 345 461 90 20 0
CDI 0 38 49 187 997 399 26 0
VCDI 0 0 108 208 897 4265 8253 5144
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59641 20311 3109 1221 190 182 41 0
OW 53 183 266 601 146 28 4 0
VODI 0 154 127 612 369 47 9 0
ODI 0 103 50 267 451 67 9 0
CDI 0 92 28 215 795 434 30 0
VCDI 0 143 175 260 1066 4223 8254 5144


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