Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-01-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60677 23312 2578 694 155 226 22 0
OW 63 452 600 229 90 32 2 0
VODI 0 52 381 471 105 60 8 0
ODI 0 7 130 394 205 105 13 0
CDI 0 7 80 320 657 425 92 16
VCDI 0 0 75 586 1926 12498 34348 44955
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61333 22049 2625 617 283 317 22 0
OW 66 407 652 243 92 76 1 0
VODI 0 74 488 455 111 64 13 0
ODI 0 7 130 452 153 130 18 0
CDI 0 7 73 396 519 415 146 18
VCDI 0 9 104 604 1819 12325 33528 46207
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60698 21760 4043 791 205 172 13 0
OW 67 159 325 443 57 19 1 0
VODI 0 86 277 743 126 73 0 0
ODI 0 30 84 514 266 99 0 0
CDI 0 29 72 335 859 342 55 10
VCDI 0 4 90 372 1696 15634 35335 41164
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61234 22239 2808 615 152 103 0 0
OW 63 204 344 460 75 47 0 0
VODI 0 123 257 584 167 46 0 0
ODI 0 47 189 383 342 104 0 0
CDI 0 34 135 311 761 356 37 11
VCDI 0 27 154 617 2020 14731 35308 41960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61234 22245 2851 661 160 120 0 0
OW 63 188 300 406 62 39 0 0
VODI 0 143 264 583 156 35 0 0
ODI 0 39 189 377 325 97 1 0
CDI 0 30 133 324 772 355 45 12
VCDI 0 29 150 619 2042 14741 35299 41959

Date: 2015-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56850 24524 4377 565 107 159 2 0
OW 51 397 408 346 28 28 0 0
VODI 0 219 311 574 161 88 0 0
ODI 0 72 219 400 367 114 0 0
CDI 0 16 195 269 730 469 5 2
VCDI 0 0 198 789 1830 12403 33843 45932
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56850 24567 4484 586 111 180 2 0
OW 51 332 333 340 37 14 0 0
VODI 0 222 276 559 177 87 0 0
ODI 0 86 211 383 393 116 1 0
CDI 0 20 196 286 738 494 16 3
VCDI 0 1 208 789 1767 12370 33831 45931

Date: 2015-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62927 20196 2909 861 115 114 0 0
OW 67 146 340 638 46 13 0 0
VODI 0 71 195 657 288 12 0 0
ODI 0 67 173 369 576 117 0 0
CDI 0 3 50 479 1006 618 60 98
VCDI 0 0 0 153 1616 10389 38327 43352
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62941 19930 2464 719 133 125 0 0
OW 53 211 411 376 70 10 0 0
VODI 0 131 269 543 263 50 0 0
ODI 0 73 183 436 327 127 0 0
CDI 0 54 140 402 656 484 89 59
VCDI 0 84 200 681 2198 10467 38298 43391

Date: 2015-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62111 21409 2629 675 136 59 0 0
OW 51 241 432 456 60 11 0 0
VODI 0 97 229 581 220 14 0 0
ODI 0 58 146 365 403 58 0 0
CDI 0 11 128 377 972 378 35 7
VCDI 0 0 3 311 1760 12865 45361 34399
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62111 21017 2356 673 173 65 0 0
OW 51 321 353 325 103 14 0 0
VODI 0 181 268 475 258 39 0 0
ODI 0 107 189 261 353 56 0 0
CDI 0 88 179 321 596 341 25 0
VCDI 0 102 222 710 2068 12870 45371 34406

Date: 2015-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60792 22335 2292 900 135 56 4 0
OW 51 372 467 543 78 14 6 0
VODI 0 107 300 574 268 13 9 0
ODI 0 49 129 373 442 70 11 0
CDI 0 34 111 292 927 402 44 24
VCDI 0 4 105 399 1873 11965 38813 41665
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60791 21633 2164 1283 200 62 11 0
OW 52 399 202 325 230 10 4 0
VODI 0 317 227 192 427 33 4 0
ODI 0 170 172 157 382 87 6 0
CDI 0 135 178 275 529 474 46 1
VCDI 0 247 461 849 1955 11854 38816 41688


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