Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-12-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63844 21072 3106 586 146 174 100 0
OW 61 150 356 395 44 8 0 0
VODI 0 86 194 366 207 6 0 0
ODI 0 45 127 173 318 22 0 0
CDI 0 25 101 271 310 215 18 0
VCDI 0 8 131 372 724 4062 8117 3160
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65154 20115 2352 645 125 107 46 0
OW 66 199 384 365 59 1 0 0
VODI 0 85 241 383 182 3 0 0
ODI 0 34 112 176 258 29 0 0
CDI 0 18 88 230 323 138 7 0
VCDI 0 2 100 355 681 3623 8045 4369
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64966 19793 2289 903 139 166 54 0
OW 71 238 336 450 95 15 0 0
VODI 0 58 134 448 228 28 0 0
ODI 0 23 77 201 321 44 0 0
CDI 0 5 63 203 423 179 8 0
VCDI 0 0 26 248 657 4223 8171 3817
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61031 22418 2672 1104 186 200 3 0
OW 63 254 413 398 120 46 1 0
VODI 0 62 218 482 201 52 2 0
ODI 0 8 64 272 240 68 8 0
CDI 0 7 53 137 461 153 19 0
VCDI 0 0 27 290 722 3950 8050 4645
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61031 22389 2693 1099 201 214 3 0
OW 63 291 421 430 102 28 0 0
VODI 0 54 194 479 210 54 3 0
ODI 0 9 61 260 229 68 6 0
CDI 0 6 48 126 486 159 18 0
VCDI 0 0 30 289 702 3946 8053 4645

Date: 2014-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64591 19230 2521 765 165 236 34 0
OW 68 398 616 250 104 33 2 0
VODI 0 79 335 444 111 60 6 0
ODI 0 12 91 326 113 74 12 0
CDI 0 10 44 270 292 131 20 0
VCDI 0 0 50 398 838 3131 8365 4875
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64591 19281 2556 783 185 246 34 0
OW 68 330 589 262 78 24 0 0
VODI 0 91 317 446 119 48 6 0
ODI 0 16 99 314 112 82 9 0
CDI 0 11 46 255 294 134 25 0
VCDI 0 0 50 393 835 3131 8365 4875

Date: 2014-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61467 20962 4404 743 189 159 25 0
OW 66 114 434 481 80 28 5 0
VODI 0 26 135 665 116 84 0 0
ODI 0 13 48 316 243 119 4 0
CDI 0 0 58 277 466 214 51 0
VCDI 0 0 13 121 561 3530 8322 4561
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61467 20657 3914 664 236 224 30 0
OW 66 270 469 238 83 57 0 0
VODI 0 107 403 565 89 91 8 0
ODI 0 41 87 397 85 84 32 0
CDI 0 35 63 285 264 121 77 0
VCDI 0 5 156 454 898 3557 8260 4561

Date: 2014-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62808 21031 2666 578 178 140 0 0
OW 63 213 337 338 36 21 0 0
VODI 0 130 266 523 92 21 0 0
ODI 0 22 250 470 199 50 0 0
CDI 0 10 94 278 459 93 4 0
VCDI 0 0 69 357 1166 3544 8284 4310
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62820 20695 2425 502 229 187 0 0
OW 51 358 371 220 51 18 0 0
VODI 0 244 368 461 73 18 0 0
ODI 0 72 225 530 120 49 0 0
CDI 0 32 99 360 397 99 12 0
VCDI 0 5 194 471 1260 3498 8276 4310

Date: 2015-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59209 23881 2704 768 119 147 4 0
OW 67 286 308 385 73 24 0 0
VODI 0 196 213 465 269 12 0 0
ODI 0 70 185 243 435 34 0 0
CDI 0 22 143 230 708 146 0 0
VCDI 0 2 111 504 1102 3984 7734 4317
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59224 23568 2659 632 147 188 4 0
OW 52 396 234 352 51 16 0 0
VODI 0 253 220 449 159 24 0 0
ODI 0 111 133 263 427 38 0 0
CDI 0 77 132 235 662 80 6 0
VCDI 0 52 286 664 1260 4001 7728 4317


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