Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-12-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 27 22 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 213 427 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 99 735 5411 19795 19061
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 42 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 155 326 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 658 4927 20018 19649
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 78 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 295 270 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 1039 7443 17158 19491
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 82 260 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 73 935 7423 14953 22098
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 67 281 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 71 950 7401 14944 22098

Date: 2014-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 20 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 33 55 63 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 31 77 224 214 25 0
VCDI 0 0 21 164 955 7396 14969 21595
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 27 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 29 45 59 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 37 81 236 199 12 0
VCDI 0 0 8 163 943 7419 14982 21595

Date: 2014-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 45 24 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 124 89 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 56 277 298 10 0
VCDI 0 0 10 123 850 9965 16407 17519
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 34 31 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 94 194 242 12 0
VCDI 0 0 12 220 1013 10025 16405 17519

Date: 2014-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 25 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 20 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 35 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 123 314 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 54 663 9552 20137 14837
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 12 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 31 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 95 267 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 54 728 9625 20141 14837

Date: 2015-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 23 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 64 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 34 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 43 272 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 506 9197 18974 16644
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 55 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 62 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 55 324 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 528 9119 18975 16644


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