Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-12-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66914 19062 2839 608 150 209 3 0
OW 56 349 392 352 39 9 0 0
VODI 0 172 216 404 146 3 0 0
ODI 0 67 179 311 209 20 0 0
CDI 0 19 90 328 368 101 3 0
VCDI 0 30 109 391 1119 5541 6270 2022
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62720 23077 2743 522 144 204 5 0
OW 63 266 453 362 29 2 0 0
VODI 0 93 271 399 158 8 0 0
ODI 0 42 178 305 203 46 1 0
CDI 0 4 82 289 242 182 13 0
VCDI 0 17 88 414 997 5048 6767 2663
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65900 20077 3152 607 132 208 27 0
OW 62 129 222 392 65 18 0 0
VODI 0 97 135 383 162 23 0 0
ODI 0 19 104 214 232 47 0 0
CDI 0 18 74 214 315 231 0 0
VCDI 0 7 72 271 818 4735 7454 2484
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65522 19823 2695 781 167 166 100 0
OW 65 156 271 455 96 2 0 0
VODI 0 98 141 356 301 7 0 0
ODI 0 35 123 164 277 68 0 0
CDI 0 28 67 240 305 321 24 0
VCDI 0 1 135 318 806 4262 8214 2510
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65522 19812 2712 849 166 167 100 0
OW 65 168 244 410 89 1 0 0
VODI 0 93 151 323 312 8 0 0
ODI 0 36 125 189 277 75 0 0
CDI 0 29 65 232 323 319 30 0
VCDI 0 3 135 311 785 4256 8208 2510

Date: 2014-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65715 19716 2566 520 148 175 38 0
OW 63 173 372 320 42 5 0 0
VODI 0 78 233 353 145 6 0 0
ODI 0 43 119 208 265 16 0 0
CDI 0 27 103 256 321 137 10 0
VCDI 0 10 120 369 823 4109 8079 3417
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65715 19731 2576 568 157 179 38 0
OW 63 161 354 294 42 1 0 0
VODI 0 74 237 322 149 7 0 0
ODI 0 45 135 233 257 16 0 0
CDI 0 24 86 219 352 166 8 0
VCDI 0 12 125 390 787 4079 8081 3417

Date: 2014-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66018 19471 1929 886 145 141 52 0
OW 70 144 337 495 110 7 0 0
VODI 0 34 154 401 267 20 0 0
ODI 0 11 53 206 402 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 59 285 374 266 4 0
VCDI 0 0 13 87 493 3762 8038 4321
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66016 19285 1819 848 176 148 52 0
OW 72 232 246 384 93 1 0 0
VODI 0 90 198 401 210 28 0 0
ODI 0 41 108 156 281 55 0 0
CDI 0 12 102 190 373 182 4 0
VCDI 0 0 72 381 658 3827 8038 4321

Date: 2014-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61784 22319 2510 908 170 182 53 0
OW 69 231 377 409 114 46 0 0
VODI 0 47 144 487 206 45 0 0
ODI 0 18 71 234 294 56 0 0
CDI 0 11 47 168 474 158 8 0
VCDI 0 0 34 274 726 4383 7841 4202
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61784 22145 2426 876 228 211 53 0
OW 69 297 285 320 95 34 0 0
VODI 0 98 226 504 186 66 0 0
ODI 0 46 84 227 227 90 3 0
CDI 0 22 80 164 457 165 13 0
VCDI 0 18 82 389 791 4304 7833 4202

Date: 2014-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60677 23303 2520 691 155 226 22 0
OW 63 452 559 217 90 32 2 0
VODI 0 52 336 437 99 60 8 0
ODI 0 7 108 345 113 67 11 0
CDI 0 3 55 280 270 115 25 0
VCDI 0 0 22 372 768 3303 8791 4444
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60677 23043 2397 719 199 240 23 0
OW 63 481 388 116 90 50 4 0
VODI 0 242 442 322 92 71 14 0
ODI 0 32 185 286 82 84 17 0
CDI 0 13 109 361 204 111 36 0
VCDI 0 6 79 538 828 3247 8765 4444


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