Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2014-12-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 46 80 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 30 71 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 60 104 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 55 74 76 56 20 0 0
CDI 0 4 87 139 136 121 39 12
VCDI 0 0 10 183 273 1500 9893 18949
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 80 70 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 69 95 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 21 167 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 82 48 102 76 29 1 0
CDI 0 29 130 145 170 182 37 5
VCDI 0 5 103 179 398 2040 9315 18406
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 69 173 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 95 176 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 59 365 87 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 30 93 150 87 2 0
CDI 0 0 11 88 166 396 83 35
VCDI 0 0 0 96 349 1771 9051 18600
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 135 98 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 77 53 133 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 62 365 49 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 88 221 114 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 40 78 147 195 48 5
VCDI 0 0 5 142 453 1879 9220 18345
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 136 106 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 43 32 109 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 106 87 359 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 86 220 121 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 31 83 137 180 49 5
VCDI 0 0 4 143 466 1901 9219 18345

Date: 2014-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 93 97 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 55 37 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 76 186 98 7 0 0
ODI 0 36 82 158 149 71 7 0
CDI 0 0 90 114 164 255 37 5
VCDI 0 0 17 164 527 2559 7928 18993
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 96 102 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 41 58 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 76 152 70 4 0 0
ODI 0 33 107 189 164 61 7 0
CDI 0 0 83 93 150 234 39 5
VCDI 0 0 8 167 554 2593 7926 18993

Date: 2014-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 96 88 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 52 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 35 162 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 137 417 9 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 190 386 81 1
VCDI 0 0 0 1 218 2082 10263 17774
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 81 64 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 50 15 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 24 67 98 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 24 130 154 16 1 0
CDI 0 1 19 88 250 230 59 5
VCDI 0 0 7 16 367 2231 10285 17770

Date: 2014-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 37 64 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 42 28 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 26 50 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 47 114 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 33 153 348 30 5
VCDI 0 0 0 6 37 2013 10967 17972
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 38 60 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 40 25 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 28 46 3 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 48 59 96 1 0
CDI 0 0 8 20 160 194 44 3
VCDI 0 0 0 32 88 2122 10952 17974

Date: 2014-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 9 58 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 41 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 45 34 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 44 32 10 2 0
CDI 0 0 4 21 92 99 58 16
VCDI 0 0 0 26 173 1118 9986 20190
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 7 74 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 28 21 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 37 39 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 25 27 31 18 0
CDI 0 0 6 12 65 136 187 24
VCDI 0 0 0 39 205 1060 9841 20182


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