Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-12-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 19 112 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 74 214 122 67 22 0
ODI 0 35 141 375 467 182 428 0
CDI 0 0 9 469 979 427 356 0
VCDI 0 0 11 170 1538 7348 14538 17690
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 38 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 83 130 72 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 304 280 190 0
CDI 0 0 0 291 842 830 307 4
VCDI 0 0 0 326 999 7418 14881 18786
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 47 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 94 130 106 0 0
CDI 0 0 45 123 510 367 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 49 900 7314 17075 19000
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 79 27 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 526 424 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 103 715 6030 19723 18139
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 102 30 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 484 370 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 94 726 6081 19703 18139

Date: 2014-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 25 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 105 367 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 598 5276 21091 18313
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 18 11 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 108 364 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 602 5276 21096 18313

Date: 2014-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 130 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 299 321 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 855 6762 18477 18906
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 56 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 236 216 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 996 6868 18502 18906

Date: 2014-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 107 298 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 769 7140 16412 21013
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 10 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 106 280 24 9
VCDI 0 0 0 33 777 7122 16465 21004

Date: 2014-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 5 60 28 0 0
CDI 0 4 21 19 295 211 9 0
VCDI 0 0 53 188 985 8077 15571 20321
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 66 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 91 141 0 0
CDI 0 0 19 10 240 399 37 1
VCDI 0 4 69 202 948 7738 15543 20320


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