Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-12-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60737 25641 3469 487 228 143 0 0
OW 52 370 443 259 32 17 0 0
VODI 0 230 522 386 140 21 0 0
ODI 0 8 155 292 246 33 0 0
CDI 0 5 24 250 293 184 2 0
VCDI 0 0 52 252 618 3244 8124 2141
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65646 21317 2448 450 190 179 6 0
OW 54 356 469 207 26 15 0 0
VODI 0 236 388 337 100 14 0 0
ODI 0 107 187 353 270 14 0 0
CDI 0 16 84 243 300 92 0 0
VCDI 0 17 85 408 947 5736 5777 2026
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63055 23657 3404 520 154 81 0 0
OW 62 185 384 282 81 8 0 0
VODI 0 66 284 369 195 7 0 0
ODI 0 4 66 264 222 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 33 166 358 145 0 0
VCDI 0 0 23 263 832 5919 5875 2105
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66507 20074 2608 553 133 169 3 0
OW 56 270 487 318 23 7 0 0
VODI 0 108 266 370 129 5 0 0
ODI 0 43 185 330 160 24 0 0
CDI 0 11 107 304 271 95 4 0
VCDI 0 2 100 374 1066 4867 6494 2577
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66507 20055 2659 564 133 169 3 0
OW 56 269 438 295 32 8 0 0
VODI 0 120 263 369 112 5 0 0
ODI 0 49 180 329 148 24 0 0
CDI 0 13 109 316 273 94 2 0
VCDI 0 2 104 376 1084 4867 6496 2577

Date: 2014-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60200 24455 3894 685 165 196 0 0
OW 57 314 365 357 53 3 0 0
VODI 0 164 200 369 181 9 0 0
ODI 0 61 190 253 204 44 0 0
CDI 0 11 89 291 334 187 13 0
VCDI 0 13 90 381 1090 6100 6199 1883
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60200 24444 3931 716 168 195 0 0
OW 57 311 317 367 56 4 0 0
VODI 0 164 211 348 157 14 0 0
ODI 0 70 183 230 198 33 0 0
CDI 0 16 96 272 333 157 9 0
VCDI 0 13 90 403 1115 6136 6203 1883

Date: 2014-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63918 21284 4183 589 137 232 27 0
OW 64 131 250 454 21 9 0 0
VODI 0 77 169 478 137 17 0 0
ODI 0 13 55 228 284 66 0 0
CDI 0 3 100 205 296 211 16 0
VCDI 0 0 23 244 839 4572 7360 2408
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63911 20782 3610 498 148 238 27 0
OW 71 353 428 229 25 18 0 0
VODI 0 170 344 364 49 27 0 0
ODI 0 126 134 304 104 29 2 0
CDI 0 53 102 261 271 71 10 0
VCDI 0 24 162 542 1117 4724 7364 2408

Date: 2014-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66402 19392 2786 701 145 162 88 0
OW 69 145 273 398 95 5 0 0
VODI 0 56 163 325 262 5 0 0
ODI 0 8 129 201 222 67 0 0
CDI 0 10 88 266 305 214 11 0
VCDI 0 2 66 327 811 4227 7814 2860
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66401 18909 2474 644 169 167 88 0
OW 70 370 341 254 117 13 0 0
VODI 0 144 288 329 174 58 11 0
ODI 0 99 113 216 185 67 21 0
CDI 0 51 88 256 277 107 44 0
VCDI 0 40 201 519 918 4268 7749 2860

Date: 2014-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63844 21072 3106 586 146 174 100 0
OW 61 150 356 395 44 8 0 0
VODI 0 86 194 366 207 6 0 0
ODI 0 45 127 173 318 22 0 0
CDI 0 25 101 271 310 215 18 0
VCDI 0 8 131 372 724 4062 8117 3160
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63843 20492 2947 625 216 181 100 0
OW 62 356 322 271 139 25 0 0
VODI 0 187 290 387 104 158 15 0
ODI 0 73 115 186 237 62 98 0
CDI 0 70 89 245 284 159 92 0
VCDI 0 208 252 449 769 3902 7930 3160


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