Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-12-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60737 26645 3719 509 228 143 0 0
OW 52 543 687 345 112 18 0 0
VODI 0 462 875 764 282 79 0 0
ODI 0 127 374 861 467 296 1 0
CDI 0 5 89 623 679 1019 72 8
VCDI 0 0 52 379 1729 12134 34327 37606
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65646 21687 2577 478 190 179 6 0
OW 54 773 785 270 31 21 0 0
VODI 0 337 606 590 134 73 2 0
ODI 0 149 419 815 470 131 0 0
CDI 0 30 258 693 993 600 155 16
VCDI 0 90 210 815 2171 17169 29288 38137
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63055 24286 3646 532 164 81 0 0
OW 62 289 667 563 96 8 0 0
VODI 0 118 449 896 285 8 0 0
ODI 0 64 232 641 446 70 0 0
CDI 0 19 154 442 967 486 60 16
VCDI 0 0 34 469 2156 16279 31714 37594
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66507 20084 2736 593 148 169 3 0
OW 56 336 593 498 87 7 0 0
VODI 0 289 492 771 210 29 10 0
ODI 0 43 305 862 616 276 179 0
CDI 0 11 207 944 1226 740 358 8
VCDI 0 2 115 750 2703 13493 33661 36931
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66507 20077 2819 659 156 169 3 0
OW 56 337 505 441 77 8 0 0
VODI 0 281 460 781 213 17 16 0
ODI 0 55 333 796 629 233 193 0
CDI 0 13 205 915 1161 764 339 6
VCDI 0 2 126 826 2754 13523 33660 36933

Date: 2014-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60200 24546 3950 708 165 196 0 0
OW 57 374 387 496 53 3 0 0
VODI 0 223 207 691 328 82 29 0
ODI 0 148 252 556 688 327 388 0
CDI 0 30 248 772 1646 759 434 13
VCDI 0 13 163 702 2918 15632 30647 38017
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60200 24552 3996 782 168 195 0 0
OW 57 355 332 556 88 4 0 0
VODI 0 220 216 595 295 87 42 0
ODI 0 158 245 510 602 297 330 0
CDI 0 36 242 696 1582 707 453 16
VCDI 0 13 176 786 3063 15709 30673 38014

Date: 2014-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63918 21479 4302 599 137 232 27 0
OW 64 161 341 664 46 9 0 0
VODI 0 88 303 894 315 19 0 0
ODI 0 15 148 504 840 172 6 0
CDI 0 3 120 462 1024 1704 421 13
VCDI 0 0 23 425 1829 12829 33303 39609
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63911 20875 3671 511 152 238 27 0
OW 71 391 461 304 71 18 0 0
VODI 0 218 357 517 243 86 0 0
ODI 0 176 174 423 305 290 106 0
CDI 0 61 233 701 764 676 646 15
VCDI 0 25 341 1092 2656 13657 32978 39607

Date: 2014-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66402 19577 2848 704 145 162 88 0
OW 69 237 322 521 95 5 0 0
VODI 0 92 227 715 321 21 0 0
ODI 0 18 173 390 425 195 2 0
CDI 0 11 104 532 885 1000 105 32
VCDI 0 2 66 470 1834 13065 34910 40278
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66401 19025 2511 646 169 167 88 0
OW 70 439 369 276 117 17 0 0
VODI 0 203 317 438 190 121 15 0
ODI 0 152 129 328 205 261 68 0
CDI 0 78 156 502 525 751 245 5
VCDI 0 40 258 1142 2499 13131 34689 40305

Date: 2014-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63844 21181 3214 586 146 174 100 0
OW 61 157 435 513 44 8 0 0
VODI 0 122 325 640 255 9 0 0
ODI 0 49 274 401 465 81 8 0
CDI 0 25 169 361 700 852 120 1
VCDI 0 8 149 652 1961 11433 36664 40861
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63843 20561 2973 625 216 181 100 0
OW 62 376 355 273 139 25 0 0
VODI 0 204 379 456 108 234 15 0
ODI 0 82 166 283 262 203 126 0
CDI 0 96 190 336 478 620 283 2
VCDI 0 223 503 1180 2368 11294 36368 40860


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