Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-12-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70462 17703 2803 488 194 33 0 0
OW 52 141 285 458 74 2 0 0
VODI 0 15 150 417 248 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 43 215 362 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 146 300 499 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 126 497 4014 5030 4282
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71395 16925 1941 673 191 11 0 0
OW 58 396 344 375 131 0 0 0
VODI 0 97 186 345 279 9 0 0
ODI 0 5 63 252 298 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 16 182 347 270 0 0
VCDI 0 0 3 125 1035 5390 5059 2638
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66415 22013 2445 604 240 52 0 0
OW 52 235 523 401 91 1 0 0
VODI 0 28 141 418 302 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 31 191 365 78 0 0
CDI 0 0 21 95 336 367 20 0
VCDI 0 0 12 167 423 6481 6050 483
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65339 21896 2805 591 272 113 4 0
OW 57 375 486 325 54 12 0 0
VODI 0 113 402 602 172 18 0 0
ODI 0 16 53 281 302 46 0 0
CDI 0 16 24 131 371 167 3 0
VCDI 0 11 96 165 474 3648 8275 1385
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65339 21980 2879 649 281 113 4 0
OW 57 328 505 349 63 9 0 0
VODI 0 78 322 545 192 35 0 0
ODI 0 17 39 263 288 45 0 0
CDI 0 16 29 119 369 163 2 0
VCDI 0 8 92 170 452 3639 8276 1385

Date: 2014-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63664 23057 3055 407 193 64 0 0
OW 54 295 445 304 26 9 0 0
VODI 0 155 478 391 136 14 0 0
ODI 0 24 159 325 308 15 0 0
CDI 0 6 29 252 333 161 0 0
VCDI 0 4 74 263 739 4604 6648 2409
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63664 23145 3158 464 200 65 0 0
OW 54 253 389 278 31 6 0 0
VODI 0 117 438 387 113 16 0 0
ODI 0 17 148 328 278 14 0 0
CDI 0 9 35 226 399 126 0 0
VCDI 0 0 72 259 714 4640 6648 2409

Date: 2014-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62612 23059 4613 619 180 129 0 0
OW 60 202 414 365 24 15 0 0
VODI 0 82 227 462 144 14 0 0
ODI 0 13 53 205 296 44 0 0
CDI 0 10 62 154 310 163 0 0
VCDI 0 0 28 252 838 5818 5684 1949
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62609 22477 4209 544 193 150 0 0
OW 63 434 393 147 14 15 0 0
VODI 0 223 350 268 43 13 0 0
ODI 0 164 235 283 89 19 0 0
CDI 0 49 91 320 228 57 0 0
VCDI 0 19 119 495 1225 5929 5684 1949

Date: 2014-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64628 22406 2479 615 164 126 17 0
OW 57 200 360 318 77 12 0 0
VODI 0 86 233 305 205 16 0 0
ODI 0 34 142 294 226 48 0 0
CDI 0 7 46 185 256 123 14 0
VCDI 0 2 47 242 971 4656 6584 2919
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64625 22058 2128 523 175 132 17 0
OW 60 385 434 177 47 10 0 0
VODI 0 194 366 263 99 11 0 0
ODI 0 75 199 317 121 26 1 0
CDI 0 21 102 316 245 104 9 0
VCDI 0 2 78 363 1212 4698 6588 2919

Date: 2014-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66914 19062 2839 608 150 209 3 0
OW 56 349 392 352 39 9 0 0
VODI 0 172 216 404 146 3 0 0
ODI 0 67 179 311 209 20 0 0
CDI 0 19 90 328 368 101 3 0
VCDI 0 30 109 391 1119 5541 6270 2022
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66910 18772 2690 596 156 208 3 0
OW 60 414 340 242 38 12 0 0
VODI 0 316 257 279 106 3 0 0
ODI 0 125 189 272 151 17 0 0
CDI 0 42 181 357 283 71 3 0
VCDI 0 30 168 648 1297 5572 6270 2022


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