Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2014-12-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 57 75 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 31 26 52 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 22 177 33 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 41 106 52 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 27 64 91 56 15 11
VCDI 0 0 8 95 305 1321 10943 18393
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 98 9 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 35 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 120 16 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 156 60 7 0 0 0
CDI 0 13 99 102 65 40 44 12
VCDI 0 0 25 273 514 3452 10267 16617
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 51 37 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 44 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 20 78 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 41 100 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 171 69 28 24
VCDI 0 0 0 138 379 2579 7280 20984
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4 33 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 20 13 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 57 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 22 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 44 135 26 6
VCDI 0 0 0 139 178 1690 9482 20143
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4 27 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 27 13 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 60 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 21 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 42 131 23 5
VCDI 0 0 0 138 182 1693 9485 20144

Date: 2014-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 28 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 19 7 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 46 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 3 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 34 144 46 14
VCDI 0 0 0 120 224 1637 11380 18276
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 26 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 22 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 56 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 17 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 21 146 41 12
VCDI 0 0 0 111 223 1626 11385 18278

Date: 2014-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 15 73 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 14 42 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 74 101 110 23 1 0 0
ODI 0 30 48 38 40 7 0 0
CDI 0 5 22 89 91 132 27 18
VCDI 0 0 3 82 235 2421 10030 18292
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 12 54 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 13 21 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 15 59 24 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 41 36 6 0 0
CDI 0 6 32 24 42 119 23 9
VCDI 0 103 132 229 286 2435 10034 18301

Date: 2014-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 39 72 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 26 58 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 24 117 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 28 140 77 46 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 86 84 104 145 24 6
VCDI 0 0 7 139 282 2593 9070 18872
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 32 47 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 29 31 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 35 116 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 32 51 43 17 0 0
CDI 0 14 46 15 87 102 15 8
VCDI 0 15 166 266 302 2636 9079 18870

Date: 2014-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 46 80 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 30 71 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 60 104 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 55 74 76 56 20 0 0
CDI 0 4 87 139 136 121 39 12
VCDI 0 0 10 183 273 1500 9893 18949
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 31 58 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 27 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 52 110 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 27 84 49 3 0 0
CDI 0 28 25 28 92 108 51 10
VCDI 0 36 152 342 340 1530 9881 18951


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