Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-12-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2640 823 151 0 0 0 0
OW 0 764 723 508 39 112 0 0
VODI 0 388 577 860 249 147 0 0
ODI 0 8 131 321 468 163 0 0
CDI 0 0 22 227 592 416 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 131 1007 6116 12030 16253
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1719 593 109 0 0 0 0
OW 0 453 748 460 26 15 0 0
VODI 0 543 390 577 587 204 6 0
ODI 0 106 106 260 847 358 7 0
CDI 0 1 57 228 543 504 16 0
VCDI 0 0 3 183 501 5316 13859 16541
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1267 819 171 1 0 0 0
OW 0 394 461 458 88 0 0 0
VODI 0 145 247 598 606 3 0 0
ODI 0 17 23 193 455 124 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 75 579 1172 123 0
VCDI 0 0 0 72 613 7434 13772 15955
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1170 252 51 5 0 0 0
OW 0 216 266 134 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 234 460 400 316 158 0 0
ODI 0 14 148 462 275 462 7 0
CDI 0 0 26 172 313 536 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 120 603 6803 15280 16878
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1267 314 45 3 0 0 0
OW 0 153 289 156 120 35 0 0
VODI 0 200 381 322 247 205 0 0
ODI 0 14 136 479 269 388 10 0
CDI 0 0 32 198 311 586 62 0
VCDI 0 0 0 139 601 6745 15281 16878

Date: 2014-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 768 181 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 236 212 68 31 20 0 0
VODI 0 140 284 263 80 34 0 0
ODI 0 132 237 493 250 147 1 0
CDI 0 5 80 407 490 507 114 0
VCDI 0 0 0 134 993 8665 13418 17442
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 920 276 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 101 138 79 24 11 0 0
VODI 0 113 225 206 124 58 0 0
ODI 0 147 257 415 171 237 8 0
CDI 0 0 96 475 497 386 93 0
VCDI 0 0 2 179 1028 8681 13432 17442

Date: 2014-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 807 461 119 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 137 283 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 175 361 57 9 0 0
ODI 0 17 40 374 229 80 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 155 533 689 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 80 767 8574 13953 17796
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 619 181 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 109 199 78 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 136 234 14 39 12 0
ODI 0 58 98 235 121 122 16 0
CDI 0 70 174 438 365 278 103 0
VCDI 0 0 29 363 1086 8913 13893 17796

Date: 2014-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 111 87 69 0 0 0 0
OW 0 223 226 139 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 175 398 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 26 45 375 234 7 0 0
CDI 0 9 57 181 846 212 18 0
VCDI 0 0 8 117 1622 8811 14174 17607
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 48 100 89 0 0 0 0
OW 0 187 96 75 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 135 244 196 32 18 0 0
ODI 0 6 48 315 130 84 4 0
CDI 0 23 35 286 534 272 49 3
VCDI 0 6 75 318 2046 8656 14139 17604

Date: 2014-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 19 112 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 74 214 122 67 22 0
ODI 0 35 141 375 467 182 428 0
CDI 0 0 9 469 979 427 356 0
VCDI 0 0 11 170 1538 7348 14538 17690
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 3 14 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 35 95 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 52 173 156 43 27 0
ODI 0 35 160 261 389 144 34 0
CDI 0 0 32 392 808 387 318 0
VCDI 0 0 9 503 1690 7449 14965 17690


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