Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-12-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70462 20400 3701 639 194 33 0 0
OW 52 936 1034 1018 116 114 0 0
VODI 0 474 749 1454 530 155 0 0
ODI 0 8 215 642 882 212 0 0
CDI 0 0 60 437 983 971 15 11
VCDI 0 0 8 352 1809 11451 28003 38928
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71395 18742 2543 782 191 11 0 0
OW 58 865 1127 835 157 15 0 0
VODI 0 665 696 938 866 213 6 0
ODI 0 128 325 572 1152 419 7 0
CDI 0 14 172 512 955 814 60 12
VCDI 0 0 31 581 2050 14158 29185 35796
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66415 23331 3301 777 241 52 0 0
OW 52 630 1028 871 179 1 0 0
VODI 0 173 408 1094 909 22 0 0
ODI 0 17 59 425 920 206 0 0
CDI 0 0 22 204 1086 1608 171 24
VCDI 0 0 12 377 1415 16494 27102 37422
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65339 23070 3090 642 277 113 4 0
OW 57 591 772 472 93 12 0 0
VODI 0 347 873 1059 490 176 0 0
ODI 0 30 201 788 599 509 7 0
CDI 0 16 50 334 728 838 95 6
VCDI 0 11 96 424 1255 12141 33037 38406
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65339 23251 3220 694 284 113 4 0
OW 57 481 821 518 183 44 0 0
VODI 0 278 713 927 440 240 0 0
ODI 0 31 175 799 578 435 10 0
CDI 0 16 61 334 722 880 87 5
VCDI 0 8 92 447 1235 12077 33042 38407

Date: 2014-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63664 23825 3264 441 193 64 0 0
OW 54 531 676 379 57 29 0 0
VODI 0 295 763 700 216 48 0 0
ODI 0 156 396 869 561 172 1 0
CDI 0 11 109 701 857 812 160 14
VCDI 0 4 74 517 1956 14906 31446 38127
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63664 24065 3460 510 200 65 0 0
OW 54 354 549 366 55 17 0 0
VODI 0 230 663 649 237 74 0 0
ODI 0 164 405 807 466 270 8 0
CDI 0 9 131 726 917 658 134 12
VCDI 0 0 74 549 1965 14947 31465 38129

Date: 2014-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62612 23881 5147 755 180 129 0 0
OW 60 214 565 690 25 15 0 0
VODI 0 240 503 933 224 24 0 0
ODI 0 60 141 617 565 131 0 0
CDI 0 15 88 398 934 984 98 18
VCDI 0 0 31 414 1840 16813 29667 38037
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62609 23108 4444 572 193 150 0 0
OW 63 545 605 246 16 15 0 0
VODI 0 288 501 561 81 53 12 0
ODI 0 222 348 559 246 147 16 0
CDI 0 125 297 782 635 454 126 9
VCDI 0 122 280 1087 2597 17277 29611 38046

Date: 2014-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64628 22556 2638 694 164 126 17 0
OW 57 427 612 515 87 12 0 0
VODI 0 127 432 820 255 16 0 0
ODI 0 88 327 746 506 72 0 0
CDI 0 16 189 450 1206 480 56 6
VCDI 0 2 62 498 2875 16060 29828 39398
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64625 22138 2275 618 175 132 17 0
OW 60 578 559 283 61 10 0 0
VODI 0 338 645 575 137 29 0 0
ODI 0 81 279 683 294 127 5 0
CDI 0 58 183 617 866 478 73 11
VCDI 0 23 319 947 3560 15990 29806 39393

Date: 2014-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66914 19108 2919 642 150 209 3 0
OW 56 368 441 535 85 9 0 0
VODI 0 185 350 722 293 70 22 0
ODI 0 157 394 762 732 222 428 0
CDI 0 23 186 936 1483 649 398 12
VCDI 0 30 130 744 2930 14389 30701 38661
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66910 18803 2748 599 170 208 3 0
OW 60 431 368 293 133 13 0 0
VODI 0 327 361 562 271 46 27 0
ODI 0 174 376 617 589 164 34 0
CDI 0 70 238 777 1183 566 372 10
VCDI 0 66 329 1493 3327 14551 31116 38663


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