Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-11-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72892 16958 1831 513 203 34 0 0
OW 50 255 247 188 88 5 0 0
VODI 0 127 219 291 126 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 30 204 183 59 1 0
CDI 0 0 11 160 252 136 6 0
VCDI 0 0 6 124 563 3482 4694 5123
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71589 17078 2951 502 193 1 0 0
OW 50 210 250 238 84 1 0 0
VODI 0 116 245 320 155 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 48 267 236 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 182 402 184 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 137 699 3324 4960 4626
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73435 16138 2066 621 180 4 0 0
OW 50 156 242 305 89 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 120 342 234 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 171 327 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 142 440 367 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 63 537 4487 4591 3914
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71158 17294 2654 625 243 25 0 0
OW 51 120 306 383 70 6 0 0
VODI 0 29 163 400 242 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 198 361 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 129 446 509 4 0
VCDI 0 0 4 86 417 4427 4734 3941
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71158 17319 2725 711 248 29 0 0
OW 51 105 253 356 80 2 0 0
VODI 0 19 136 386 259 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 24 150 373 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 125 389 497 7 0
VCDI 0 0 5 93 430 4436 4731 3941

Date: 2014-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72489 15771 2242 627 143 17 0 0
OW 54 240 344 456 81 1 0 0
VODI 0 36 108 429 304 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 27 217 401 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 14 146 377 287 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 124 665 5159 4194 4131
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72489 15827 2289 668 154 18 0 0
OW 54 203 325 430 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 86 410 331 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 20 229 406 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 15 140 327 321 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 122 666 5108 4194 4131

Date: 2014-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65601 21937 3556 568 237 26 0 0
OW 55 141 331 568 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 50 472 305 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 162 487 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 72 434 495 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 64 615 6504 5668 595
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65597 21615 3140 594 268 26 0 0
OW 59 346 433 264 122 7 0 0
VODI 0 112 242 401 241 25 0 0
ODI 0 10 91 267 279 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 34 211 291 268 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 169 949 6701 5668 595

Date: 2014-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62664 24395 3183 721 274 81 2 0
OW 52 326 494 469 65 13 0 0
VODI 0 104 154 511 347 28 0 0
ODI 0 18 32 183 333 56 0 0
CDI 0 15 35 65 330 344 5 0
VCDI 0 14 80 171 352 5662 6266 1256
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62664 24212 3154 702 270 81 2 0
OW 52 316 276 323 80 17 0 0
VODI 0 258 254 412 265 28 0 0
ODI 0 46 118 282 331 102 0 0
CDI 0 23 70 134 275 299 1 0
VCDI 0 17 106 267 480 5657 6270 1256

Date: 2014-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60737 25641 3469 487 228 143 0 0
OW 52 370 443 259 32 17 0 0
VODI 0 230 522 386 140 21 0 0
ODI 0 8 155 292 246 33 0 0
CDI 0 5 24 250 293 184 2 0
VCDI 0 0 52 252 618 3244 8124 2141
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60737 25376 3486 552 231 146 0 0
OW 52 401 312 223 37 14 0 0
VODI 0 344 461 251 189 20 0 0
ODI 0 123 243 297 300 44 0 0
CDI 0 10 69 261 245 177 3 0
VCDI 0 0 94 342 555 3241 8123 2141


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