Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-11-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73580 23668 3194 790 205 34 0 0
OW 50 798 842 468 126 5 0 0
VODI 0 307 710 828 209 45 0 0
ODI 0 0 110 854 501 85 1 0
CDI 0 0 12 504 1035 348 75 30
VCDI 0 0 6 460 1869 12796 25340 37163
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71971 22321 4501 762 204 1 0 0
OW 50 1030 822 642 176 1 0 0
VODI 0 375 656 825 301 23 0 0
ODI 0 2 234 780 555 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 17 579 1185 475 28 11
VCDI 0 0 0 337 2251 10607 26161 39103
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73438 20947 3551 941 184 4 0 0
OW 50 900 1134 856 157 0 0 0
VODI 0 170 525 1145 510 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 36 499 772 171 0 0
CDI 0 0 12 364 1249 992 17 9
VCDI 0 0 2 210 1736 13803 24771 37845
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71158 20575 3538 767 276 27 0 0
OW 51 1296 981 957 181 48 0 0
VODI 0 389 741 1268 484 123 0 0
ODI 0 6 151 706 882 225 0 0
CDI 0 0 16 346 1090 877 25 5
VCDI 0 0 4 198 1761 11839 26677 39380
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71158 20908 3679 893 294 41 0 0
OW 51 924 881 842 191 33 0 0
VODI 0 424 681 1262 455 111 0 0
ODI 0 10 163 645 830 236 0 0
CDI 0 0 22 361 1041 851 26 5
VCDI 0 0 5 239 1863 11867 26676 39380

Date: 2014-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72489 18036 2921 747 144 17 0 0
OW 54 1015 990 834 142 76 0 0
VODI 0 648 716 1238 821 167 0 0
ODI 0 45 217 691 1046 231 0 0
CDI 0 10 92 460 1023 877 33 19
VCDI 0 0 29 420 1907 14759 26790 37344
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72489 18493 3191 869 170 33 0 0
OW 54 695 806 732 128 70 0 0
VODI 0 426 630 1181 867 156 0 0
ODI 0 124 201 691 996 269 0 0
CDI 0 15 96 434 959 891 41 17
VCDI 0 1 41 483 1963 14708 26782 37346

Date: 2014-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65601 24063 4645 779 239 26 0 0
OW 55 392 1043 1121 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 256 1402 517 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 31 525 1310 219 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 227 1379 2002 82 13
VCDI 0 0 0 294 1406 14477 28915 35915
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65597 23194 3883 860 272 26 0 0
OW 59 732 896 781 179 41 0 0
VODI 0 359 725 934 732 203 3 0
ODI 0 147 303 591 998 505 16 0
CDI 0 41 129 481 724 1106 55 13
VCDI 0 0 39 701 2033 14852 28923 35915

Date: 2014-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62664 25556 3759 824 278 81 2 0
OW 52 566 921 741 194 33 0 0
VODI 0 310 528 1069 794 218 0 0
ODI 0 54 187 525 749 335 18 0
CDI 0 15 36 206 706 1175 170 13
VCDI 0 14 80 431 1283 15348 30790 36323
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62664 25348 3670 821 352 91 2 0
OW 52 440 531 488 441 157 0 0
VODI 0 485 612 644 660 570 105 0
ODI 0 142 335 795 537 744 194 0
CDI 0 83 238 320 540 1429 216 13
VCDI 0 17 125 728 1474 14199 30463 36323

Date: 2014-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60737 26645 3719 509 228 143 0 0
OW 52 543 687 345 112 18 0 0
VODI 0 462 875 764 282 79 0 0
ODI 0 127 374 861 467 296 1 0
CDI 0 5 89 623 679 1019 72 8
VCDI 0 0 52 379 1729 12134 34327 37606
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60737 26489 3778 599 323 164 0 0
OW 52 500 521 282 131 109 0 0
VODI 0 514 661 466 357 549 0 0
ODI 0 223 480 884 495 825 47 0
CDI 0 56 256 637 480 1190 250 25
VCDI 0 0 100 613 1711 10852 34103 37589


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