Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-11-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73106 17316 2151 544 176 0 0 0
OW 44 350 182 150 107 4 0 0
VODI 0 92 251 206 105 22 0 0
ODI 0 1 65 188 117 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 219 307 100 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 121 628 3468 4579 4468
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72846 17153 2276 482 116 10 0 0
OW 45 426 220 173 91 3 0 0
VODI 0 92 223 213 137 14 0 0
ODI 0 3 62 212 178 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 23 235 276 272 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 172 893 3269 4549 4401
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73039 17368 2057 551 164 35 0 0
OW 35 96 246 326 101 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 38 285 206 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 148 192 110 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 146 347 361 0 0
VCDI 0 0 2 72 347 2606 5294 4882
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71538 17889 2521 475 213 15 0 0
OW 35 299 219 217 71 3 0 0
VODI 0 69 196 316 125 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 21 194 175 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 138 308 149 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 84 472 3588 4871 4837
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71538 17846 2494 522 228 15 0 0
OW 35 301 238 171 73 5 0 0
VODI 0 110 201 302 114 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 21 207 168 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 134 316 153 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 88 465 3576 4871 4837

Date: 2014-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70739 18559 2325 545 210 8 0 0
OW 50 221 241 210 99 4 0 0
VODI 0 161 185 303 161 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 40 248 198 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 16 154 325 199 1 0
VCDI 0 0 3 108 635 3945 4835 4286
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70739 18438 2333 571 232 9 0 0
OW 50 224 168 195 97 4 0 0
VODI 0 271 212 280 150 26 0 0
ODI 0 8 76 254 194 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 20 153 323 189 1 0
VCDI 0 0 1 115 632 3945 4835 4286

Date: 2014-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71798 17904 2342 538 161 0 0 0
OW 38 75 291 381 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 33 400 229 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 138 361 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 110 526 513 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 43 390 3711 4646 4395
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71786 17437 2139 556 187 0 0 0
OW 50 258 130 227 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 267 201 208 179 7 0 0
ODI 0 17 180 244 206 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 17 216 374 206 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 159 704 3995 4646 4395

Date: 2014-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72788 16745 1872 664 216 8 0 0
OW 50 147 263 281 89 11 0 0
VODI 0 5 168 354 231 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 176 344 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 128 409 434 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 77 534 4956 4833 3218
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72787 16260 1659 690 277 18 0 0
OW 51 412 193 149 99 21 0 0
VODI 0 192 263 136 189 37 0 0
ODI 0 33 170 233 157 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 37 296 380 264 0 0
VCDI 0 0 6 176 721 5055 4833 3218

Date: 2014-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70462 17703 2803 488 194 33 0 0
OW 52 141 285 458 74 2 0 0
VODI 0 15 150 417 248 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 43 215 362 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 146 300 499 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 126 497 4014 5030 4282
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70462 17353 2676 509 225 35 0 0
OW 52 289 257 333 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 210 187 375 194 8 0 0
ODI 0 7 130 249 255 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 36 224 381 363 0 0
VCDI 0 0 6 160 543 4137 5030 4282


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