Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2014-11-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 143 441 86 55 0 0 0
OW 0 60 114 72 35 5 0 0
VODI 0 11 105 227 33 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 197 193 104 0 1
CDI 0 0 1 49 197 611 135 22
VCDI 0 0 0 13 129 4745 11241 13035
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 46 346 110 5 0 0 0
OW 0 64 153 93 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 96 194 41 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 225 76 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 318 204 50 81
VCDI 0 0 0 22 178 2405 11237 16004
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 188 376 126 14 0 0 0
OW 0 15 99 146 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 19 165 104 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 86 131 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 183 297 30 35
VCDI 0 0 0 18 101 2431 9945 17442
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 59 219 77 0 0 0 0
OW 0 61 138 160 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 53 204 42 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 73 124 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 25 187 153 90 26
VCDI 0 0 0 35 185 1872 10822 17391
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 100 237 106 3 0 0 0
OW 0 20 114 103 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 58 192 51 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 101 104 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 38 182 161 88 31
VCDI 0 0 0 34 206 1869 10824 17386

Date: 2014-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 74 30 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 80 39 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 126 160 33 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 155 48 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 175 148 75 29
VCDI 0 0 0 10 241 2296 9371 18864
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 82 40 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 74 32 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 106 147 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 34 138 41 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 83 131 147 77 23
VCDI 0 0 0 12 300 2307 9369 18870

Date: 2014-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 114 202 157 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 57 105 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 122 56 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 42 144 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 104 247 47 9
VCDI 0 0 0 26 215 1754 9774 18794
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 103 35 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 57 50 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 103 83 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 72 110 60 7 1 0
CDI 0 0 16 125 59 112 44 7
VCDI 0 0 0 98 375 1910 9776 18796

Date: 2014-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 72 61 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 62 115 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 60 162 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 101 53 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 142 117 9 5
VCDI 0 0 0 29 246 2103 10097 18535
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 69 35 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 41 24 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 49 99 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 39 118 29 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 23 137 81 98 60 9
VCDI 0 0 2 84 339 2110 10046 18531

Date: 2014-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 57 75 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 31 26 52 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 22 177 33 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 41 106 52 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 27 64 91 56 15 11
VCDI 0 0 8 95 305 1321 10943 18393
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 49 67 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 16 15 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 12 82 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 11 113 30 22 0 0
CDI 0 5 27 109 50 112 68 105
VCDI 0 13 66 171 372 1250 10890 18299


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