Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-11-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 787 7950 2033 64 0 0 0 0
OW 0 79 431 202 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 175 452 96 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 258 264 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 198 411 279 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 1028 6293 13342 11380
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 230 7898 2068 105 0 0 0 0
OW 0 192 501 220 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 164 509 130 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 261 216 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 143 373 227 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 202 1152 5398 11327 14479
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 884 7541 1615 203 0 0 0 0
OW 0 181 432 220 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 139 556 110 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 301 307 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 139 382 256 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 138 905 5583 12695 13257
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 742 6704 1731 138 0 0 0 0
OW 0 391 520 186 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 344 446 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 505 346 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 216 478 56 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 287 1351 6584 11782 12955
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 742 6695 1731 138 0 0 0 0
OW 0 339 512 173 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 349 433 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 490 283 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 280 496 55 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 264 1374 6589 11779 12955

Date: 2014-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 506 5891 1367 367 10 0 0 0
OW 0 734 425 297 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 231 315 368 111 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 131 430 302 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 291 585 161 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 185 1105 6263 11139 14603
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 506 5943 1293 378 18 0 0 0
OW 0 622 440 253 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 258 350 380 112 0 0 0
ODI 0 36 135 402 265 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 25 317 559 135 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 208 1160 6290 11139 14603

Date: 2014-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 242 4930 1976 215 4 0 0 0
OW 0 655 623 481 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 95 161 559 187 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 434 583 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 812 436 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 81 891 5703 10785 15805
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 214 4669 1655 226 28 3 0 0
OW 28 668 523 329 106 15 0 0
VODI 0 303 404 336 166 20 0 0
ODI 0 40 148 308 249 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 35 263 584 240 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 386 1414 5873 10785 15805

Date: 2014-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 30 3845 1096 243 20 0 0 0
OW 0 960 639 499 77 3 0 0
VODI 0 189 505 748 354 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 70 312 366 76 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 117 646 226 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 1015 6523 11875 15321
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 29 3914 1134 314 75 2 0 0
OW 1 622 578 432 162 24 0 0
VODI 0 337 347 618 289 106 0 0
ODI 0 120 176 201 264 102 0 0
CDI 0 1 66 227 460 211 0 0
VCDI 0 0 10 196 1228 6424 11875 15321

Date: 2014-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2640 823 151 0 0 0 0
OW 0 764 723 508 39 112 0 0
VODI 0 388 577 860 249 147 0 0
ODI 0 8 131 321 468 163 0 0
CDI 0 0 22 227 592 416 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 131 1007 6116 12030 16253
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2736 1028 212 2 83 0 0
OW 0 463 519 607 233 110 0 0
VODI 0 373 390 686 317 358 0 0
ODI 0 209 174 221 238 268 0 0
CDI 0 17 155 206 400 319 0 0
VCDI 0 2 10 266 1165 5816 12030 16253


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