Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-11-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73463 18415 2329 403 149 8 0 0
OW 41 158 201 158 47 20 0 0
VODI 0 131 87 229 98 44 0 0
ODI 0 10 41 129 147 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 30 111 195 105 2 0
VCDI 0 0 8 133 447 2774 5051 3890
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74149 17744 1919 383 141 0 0 0
OW 41 283 173 176 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 113 148 171 81 0 0 0
ODI 0 74 118 129 137 2 0 0
CDI 0 6 68 104 233 50 0 0
VCDI 0 18 44 264 734 3719 4026 3822
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71923 19424 2162 465 128 7 0 0
OW 29 200 218 208 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 158 243 115 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 261 157 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 128 277 83 0 0
VCDI 0 0 12 120 597 3647 4304 4077
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72243 18715 1909 499 143 0 0 0
OW 43 200 275 149 89 0 0 0
VODI 0 60 283 192 117 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 63 196 129 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 220 260 67 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 175 702 3564 4347 4422
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72243 18738 1911 514 146 0 0 0
OW 43 183 265 124 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 281 204 115 13 0 0
ODI 0 6 75 203 122 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 208 258 70 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 178 708 3557 4347 4422

Date: 2014-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72868 17505 2058 516 192 5 0 0
OW 44 380 216 130 104 12 0 0
VODI 0 94 250 182 92 44 0 0
ODI 0 6 50 214 116 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 258 294 217 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 117 681 2841 5029 4525
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72868 17378 2050 524 204 6 0 0
OW 44 422 217 111 96 16 0 0
VODI 0 172 216 179 97 53 0 0
ODI 0 13 84 220 104 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 257 306 227 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 126 672 2823 5027 4525

Date: 2014-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72573 18060 2103 562 156 8 0 0
OW 33 60 229 264 80 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 30 354 152 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 159 234 76 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 191 496 489 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 304 3024 4961 4436
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72559 17392 1854 555 188 13 0 0
OW 47 410 191 144 96 13 0 0
VODI 0 300 197 264 85 61 0 0
ODI 0 18 88 194 142 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 31 276 297 242 3 0
VCDI 0 0 4 134 614 3234 4963 4436

Date: 2014-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71550 18342 2309 541 151 36 0 0
OW 35 149 325 312 88 2 0 0
VODI 0 6 83 292 201 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 151 205 67 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 146 280 236 0 0
VCDI 0 0 3 98 385 2530 5309 5226
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71550 17885 2062 511 231 41 0 0
OW 35 383 187 137 73 34 0 0
VODI 0 213 334 278 101 69 0 0
ODI 0 16 113 237 166 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 38 222 268 209 0 0
VCDI 0 0 11 155 471 2470 5309 5226

Date: 2014-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72892 16958 1831 513 203 34 0 0
OW 50 255 247 188 88 5 0 0
VODI 0 127 219 291 126 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 30 204 183 59 1 0
CDI 0 0 11 160 252 136 6 0
VCDI 0 0 6 124 563 3482 4694 5123
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72892 16677 1719 567 296 75 0 0
OW 50 241 150 136 102 55 1 0
VODI 0 324 256 148 119 95 9 0
ODI 0 97 165 258 108 106 13 0
CDI 0 1 34 218 321 229 24 0
VCDI 0 0 20 153 469 3195 4654 5123


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