Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-11-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 414 8747 2100 72 0 0 0 0
OW 0 154 395 78 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 254 422 63 0 0 0
ODI 0 49 145 498 375 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 219 891 358 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 116 923 5525 8900 15055
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1003 8258 1734 100 0 0 0 0
OW 0 224 415 69 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 226 382 17 7 0 0
ODI 0 112 140 371 280 13 0 0
CDI 0 12 84 420 613 211 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 155 1344 5380 9569 14677
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1292 8330 1774 42 0 0 0 0
OW 0 96 380 161 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 181 403 47 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 45 387 450 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 1148 117 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 1505 4687 8211 16439
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1115 8002 1893 55 0 0 0 0
OW 0 86 476 148 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 127 458 75 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 300 315 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 24 240 569 227 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 1653 5228 9081 15698
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1115 8016 1931 72 0 0 0 0
OW 0 72 405 134 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 155 417 101 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 282 295 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 29 229 518 214 0 0
VCDI 0 0 2 136 1695 5241 9081 15698

Date: 2014-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23 8553 1896 101 0 0 0 0
OW 0 154 442 194 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 199 513 74 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 21 265 213 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 186 372 221 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 72 928 6210 12425 12794
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23 8544 1962 133 0 0 0 0
OW 0 157 340 165 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 206 420 75 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 46 283 218 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 149 343 200 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 181 951 6232 12425 12794

Date: 2014-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 874 7381 2062 93 0 0 0 0
OW 0 114 475 220 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 117 610 53 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 249 397 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 123 481 456 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 113 802 5318 11834 14065
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 874 7292 1933 96 0 0 0 0
OW 0 192 471 137 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 209 397 89 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 23 383 155 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 18 123 280 173 27 0
VCDI 0 0 5 272 1210 5559 11807 14065

Date: 2014-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 867 7234 1564 149 0 0 0 0
OW 0 301 528 185 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 216 512 78 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 399 313 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 185 417 94 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 158 1086 5829 12447 13268
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 867 7053 1480 161 0 0 0 0
OW 0 295 455 128 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 195 280 367 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 91 426 260 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 176 348 82 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 330 1276 5848 12457 13268

Date: 2014-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 688 6619 1307 247 2 0 0 0
OW 0 511 422 207 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 160 369 388 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 75 499 256 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 298 569 113 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 299 1029 6787 11639 13295
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 686 6432 1261 216 0 0 0 0
OW 2 498 362 216 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 274 246 310 40 0 0 0
ODI 0 80 155 295 217 1 0 0
CDI 0 6 89 260 498 128 4 0
VCDI 0 0 60 641 1167 6775 11648 13295


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