Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2014-10-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2053 501 114 40 26 0 0
OW 0 765 370 149 60 47 0 0
VODI 0 428 442 1389 831 117 0 0
ODI 0 170 231 735 1669 405 0 0
CDI 0 15 119 244 1440 1622 55 0
VCDI 0 0 22 142 510 3745 7709 5917
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1209 563 247 19 0 0 0
OW 0 738 302 127 87 14 0 0
VODI 0 391 391 608 460 87 0 0
ODI 0 90 127 288 1390 1007 8 0
CDI 0 6 88 292 1406 2128 210 0
VCDI 0 0 1 65 846 5096 8335 5456
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1043 624 128 16 0 0 0
OW 0 464 408 279 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 115 352 651 187 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 329 997 264 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 1431 3442 240 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 230 3872 12762 4153
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 769 351 106 12 0 0 0
OW 0 402 172 67 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 294 447 398 95 5 0 0
ODI 0 19 161 540 450 59 4 0
CDI 0 0 61 176 622 793 431 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 542 5526 13470 6011
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 845 424 112 11 0 0 0
OW 0 296 129 86 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 308 386 410 121 3 0 0
ODI 0 35 140 553 468 65 6 0
CDI 0 0 113 147 580 660 163 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 555 5655 13736 6011

Date: 2014-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 689 296 102 18 0 0 0
OW 0 303 115 38 32 5 0 0
VODI 0 437 290 108 75 17 0 0
ODI 0 147 207 412 251 93 1 0
CDI 0 60 34 158 316 448 67 14
VCDI 0 45 67 120 308 3863 10116 12830
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 756 347 101 14 0 0 0
OW 0 241 98 62 28 2 0 0
VODI 0 401 217 116 85 11 0 0
ODI 0 158 217 326 234 109 1 0
CDI 0 55 57 205 339 500 38 16
VCDI 0 70 73 128 300 3804 10145 12828

Date: 2014-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1228 684 113 10 0 0 0
OW 0 181 232 121 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 166 290 70 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 185 338 80 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 339 727 91 53
VCDI 0 0 0 9 61 2770 8534 15747
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 658 410 74 7 0 0 0
OW 0 227 82 25 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 332 224 65 42 18 0 0
ODI 0 79 200 229 80 66 2 0
CDI 0 48 75 175 285 371 135 35
VCDI 0 65 91 166 410 3127 8490 15765

Date: 2014-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 889 399 68 13 0 0 0
OW 0 297 180 84 26 6 0 0
VODI 0 184 261 168 86 11 0 0
ODI 0 4 151 151 89 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 56 178 251 382 22 26
VCDI 0 0 5 99 535 7335 10005 10078
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 536 309 68 10 0 0 0
OW 0 282 94 20 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 384 183 35 40 15 0 0
ODI 0 119 195 119 57 59 0 3
CDI 0 40 147 162 75 299 39 27
VCDI 0 13 124 344 781 7404 9988 10074

Date: 2014-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 392 512 66 15 0 0 0
OW 0 268 138 40 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 123 411 185 139 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 138 303 136 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 150 313 200 33 10
VCDI 0 0 0 134 372 5953 11718 10298
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 381 357 65 17 0 0 0
OW 0 101 194 58 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 231 297 125 51 1 0 0
ODI 0 67 201 162 78 48 6 0
CDI 0 7 118 171 142 229 91 13
VCDI 0 0 34 297 692 5877 11654 10295


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