Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-10-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2747 9139 1879 66 1 0 0 0
OW 0 890 463 158 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 1048 824 568 49 0 0 0
ODI 0 226 218 475 240 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 55 315 345 102 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 180 747 1760 7143 16210
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2939 8196 1475 131 0 0 0 0
OW 0 607 705 385 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 319 627 672 129 0 0 0
ODI 0 419 496 623 469 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 302 467 207 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 110 681 1678 7616 16518
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2725 8807 1800 290 14 0 0 0
OW 0 467 593 773 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 86 262 1227 185 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 302 687 120 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 555 382 1 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 404 1812 6654 17569
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2317 8194 1580 76 12 0 0 0
OW 0 427 631 545 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 322 364 1335 348 5 0 0
ODI 0 64 174 484 556 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 568 586 10 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 314 2405 7428 16940
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2317 8290 1827 157 31 0 0 0
OW 0 316 378 507 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 386 492 1232 323 3 0 0
ODI 0 15 49 519 541 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 60 558 490 9 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 361 2516 7429 16938

Date: 2014-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1025 8452 2096 117 1 0 0 0
OW 0 373 421 241 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 243 392 536 268 73 0 0
ODI 0 254 162 472 710 293 0 0
CDI 0 15 127 148 858 657 6 2
VCDI 0 0 0 9 405 3376 7922 16143
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1025 8580 2205 151 12 0 0 0
OW 0 282 415 320 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 223 306 411 221 18 0 0
ODI 0 249 252 517 601 203 0 0
CDI 0 3 20 106 939 615 9 5
VCDI 0 0 0 18 479 3563 7919 16140

Date: 2014-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1201 8801 2220 71 0 0 0 0
OW 0 312 577 309 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 96 848 266 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 237 663 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 595 1135 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 416 3808 8623 15618
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1201 8372 1882 63 0 0 0 0
OW 0 207 344 216 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 162 258 507 260 14 0 0
ODI 0 375 366 480 290 34 0 0
CDI 0 14 42 177 422 395 3 0
VCDI 0 0 1 26 932 4518 8643 15618

Date: 2014-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1269 8254 1946 50 0 0 0 0
OW 0 392 469 180 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 158 393 635 207 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 253 633 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 455 464 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 545 4515 8612 16327
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1269 8133 1777 60 0 0 0 0
OW 0 173 271 154 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 128 300 258 175 17 0 0
ODI 0 363 274 268 418 131 0 0
CDI 0 7 197 327 601 344 3 0
VCDI 0 0 8 87 651 4531 8609 16327

Date: 2014-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 414 8747 2100 72 0 0 0 0
OW 0 154 395 78 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 254 422 63 0 0 0
ODI 0 49 145 498 375 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 219 891 358 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 116 923 5525 8900 15055
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 414 8634 2097 108 0 0 0 0
OW 0 151 243 135 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 93 232 239 171 41 0 0
ODI 0 74 152 176 179 106 0 0
CDI 0 84 143 407 596 431 0 0
VCDI 0 2 28 340 1277 5321 8900 15055


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