Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-10-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81240 27254 3837 408 85 44 0 0
OW 9 1780 1027 447 103 78 0 0
VODI 0 1483 1413 2163 963 147 0 0
ODI 0 396 501 1332 2060 468 0 0
CDI 0 15 191 710 2033 1874 55 0
VCDI 0 0 23 412 1887 8056 19162 25392
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82997 24208 3229 572 40 9 0 0
OW 12 1542 1303 612 139 46 0 0
VODI 0 765 1154 1583 667 111 0 0
ODI 0 529 697 1072 2025 1068 8 0
CDI 0 8 176 818 2121 2369 226 0
VCDI 0 0 21 399 2192 9603 19925 24802
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82375 25320 3802 726 73 15 0 0
OW 12 1005 1285 1194 129 50 0 0
VODI 0 227 728 2194 440 44 0 0
ODI 0 14 89 793 1847 439 19 0
CDI 0 0 54 277 2217 3940 241 12
VCDI 0 0 6 72 1078 8439 24667 23225
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81364 24061 3659 577 117 6 0 0
OW 18 979 1013 810 137 43 3 0
VODI 0 662 941 1994 554 55 25 0
ODI 0 90 419 1160 1210 167 11 0
CDI 0 0 111 380 1443 1575 442 10
VCDI 0 0 0 209 1229 10169 26145 25260
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81364 24244 4042 675 136 17 0 0
OW 18 753 667 797 107 49 13 0
VODI 0 741 1009 1912 558 43 20 0
ODI 0 54 266 1184 1203 166 8 0
CDI 0 0 159 384 1419 1340 173 12
VCDI 0 0 0 178 1267 10400 26412 25258

Date: 2014-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75503 28309 4210 637 30 1 0 0
OW 34 822 711 483 159 23 0 0
VODI 0 719 777 871 522 136 2 0
ODI 0 431 421 1046 1204 454 1 0
CDI 0 75 204 427 1476 1342 76 16
VCDI 0 45 97 280 1085 8959 22770 32690
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75503 28589 4394 702 45 4 0 0
OW 34 599 676 561 134 22 0 0
VODI 0 656 611 759 476 74 2 0
ODI 0 428 516 1003 1074 387 1 0
CDI 0 59 118 421 1602 1343 50 21
VCDI 0 70 105 298 1145 9085 22796 32685

Date: 2014-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73512 30859 4909 745 106 0 0 0
OW 34 600 882 708 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 293 1359 486 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 525 1205 165 5 0
CDI 0 0 4 77 1237 2391 168 53
VCDI 0 0 0 52 719 8708 22083 35000
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73508 29709 4139 690 166 0 0 0
OW 38 591 554 417 148 23 0 0
VODI 0 554 570 777 414 101 6 0
ODI 0 478 590 836 469 208 29 0
CDI 0 81 143 450 965 1099 177 35
VCDI 0 65 105 296 1696 9859 22044 35018

Date: 2014-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72407 29622 5261 718 180 2 0 0
OW 37 797 711 580 110 27 0 0
VODI 0 393 693 1004 435 62 0 0
ODI 0 4 179 511 924 149 0 0
CDI 0 0 64 258 959 1085 39 26
VCDI 0 0 9 170 1280 13991 23115 31246
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72406 29089 4830 760 251 39 0 0
OW 38 573 514 313 113 43 0 0
VODI 0 584 557 549 313 118 2 0
ODI 0 504 494 506 610 298 14 3
CDI 0 53 376 576 882 927 75 27
VCDI 0 13 146 537 1719 13891 23063 31242

Date: 2014-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73877 27554 4941 541 164 8 0 0
OW 41 580 734 276 82 20 0 0
VODI 0 342 752 836 300 44 0 0
ODI 0 63 324 930 658 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 33 480 1399 663 35 10
VCDI 0 0 8 383 1742 14252 25669 29243
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73877 27283 4722 722 266 69 0 0
OW 41 452 606 288 120 44 0 0
VODI 0 434 670 501 328 136 3 0
ODI 0 231 401 446 365 285 13 0
CDI 0 135 302 707 877 831 132 13
VCDI 0 4 91 782 2389 13686 25556 29240


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