Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-10-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3281 11246 2491 101 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1005 551 143 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 234 400 452 94 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 45 460 244 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 160 451 228 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 358 2827 8829 12205
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3310 10176 2242 78 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1229 690 83 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 530 478 422 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 72 472 304 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 174 412 198 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 432 2395 9075 12930
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2014-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2522 9768 1820 139 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1127 501 209 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 879 771 585 70 0 0 0
ODI 0 26 152 452 241 17 0 0
CDI 0 3 41 259 295 95 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 119 712 1846 7079 16132
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2522 10046 1934 182 1 0 0 0
OW 0 1034 595 212 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 700 597 568 77 0 0 0
ODI 0 23 123 407 233 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 36 247 272 93 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 147 726 1854 7079 16132

Date: 2014-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2849 8705 1634 118 1 0 0 0
OW 0 775 623 191 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 696 665 584 137 0 0 0
ODI 0 358 412 529 338 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 28 299 416 191 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 120 789 1607 7198 16575
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2849 8843 1848 150 2 0 0 0
OW 0 722 383 193 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 698 779 635 166 0 0 0
ODI 0 271 327 446 288 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 25 272 422 135 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 145 805 1621 7198 16575

Date: 2014-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2715 9022 2084 218 8 0 0 0
OW 0 383 768 776 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 237 1133 168 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 250 869 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 516 501 0 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 366 1461 6680 17572
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2715 8349 1585 177 14 0 0 0
OW 0 326 579 344 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 344 501 919 208 21 0 0
ODI 0 364 405 680 471 62 0 0
CDI 0 48 19 249 522 145 42 8
VCDI 0 0 0 66 697 1738 6638 17573

Date: 2014-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2645 8218 1739 175 17 0 0 0
OW 0 722 548 557 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 270 351 1451 211 2 0 0
ODI 0 11 36 364 513 169 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 590 392 5 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 372 2121 6953 17337
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2645 8052 1587 126 34 0 0 0
OW 0 323 406 340 107 13 0 0
VODI 0 393 327 963 261 103 4 0
ODI 0 410 283 993 417 153 33 0
CDI 0 43 71 146 440 344 87 14
VCDI 0 0 0 3 504 2071 6835 17335

Date: 2014-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2487 7749 1503 113 10 0 0 0
OW 0 373 524 324 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 247 346 866 561 13 0 0
ODI 0 191 230 500 951 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 68 654 597 0 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 240 2204 7849 17133
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2487 7768 1625 273 66 0 0 0
OW 0 230 333 326 115 30 0 0
VODI 0 268 295 699 522 147 50 0
ODI 0 264 251 417 1019 151 84 0
CDI 0 30 109 152 462 553 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 293 1981 7580 17147


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