Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-10-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82752 31715 4773 617 126 2 0 0
OW 4 3067 2056 1255 219 27 0 0
VODI 0 661 1381 2104 750 185 3 0
ODI 0 10 139 1332 1385 238 5 0
CDI 0 0 4 375 1467 1125 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 55 820 5334 20898 22104
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81939 29432 4456 568 188 16 0 0
OW 6 2828 1997 1408 651 134 0 0
VODI 0 773 1475 2368 1114 263 6 0
ODI 0 15 139 1068 1560 729 195 0
CDI 0 0 8 357 1099 1289 309 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 886 5305 21639 22763
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2014-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82484 26449 3842 506 90 9 0 0
OW 9 1970 1195 683 95 26 0 0
VODI 0 1287 1768 2486 1152 31 0 0
ODI 0 198 444 1119 2205 259 4 0
CDI 0 26 119 582 1683 1996 118 0
VCDI 0 0 0 278 1492 7374 18695 26374
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82484 26860 4008 577 99 7 0 0
OW 9 1632 1374 726 113 27 0 0
VODI 0 1007 1329 2352 1157 45 0 0
ODI 0 316 500 1142 2213 317 2 0
CDI 0 110 156 567 1619 1927 104 0
VCDI 0 5 1 290 1516 7372 18711 26374

Date: 2014-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82648 25078 3674 477 64 17 0 0
OW 11 1803 1127 451 119 78 0 0
VODI 0 1139 1171 1833 670 192 0 0
ODI 0 461 723 1354 1839 917 0 0
CDI 0 4 137 717 2317 2135 46 0
VCDI 0 0 2 337 2423 9156 18690 25238
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82648 25369 3901 507 83 35 0 0
OW 11 1562 941 461 88 81 0 0
VODI 0 1084 1190 1950 848 367 0 0
ODI 0 381 523 1113 1764 1147 0 0
CDI 0 83 247 760 2260 1728 24 0
VCDI 0 6 32 378 2389 9137 18712 25238

Date: 2014-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82903 25817 4426 579 28 2 0 0
OW 11 689 1446 1282 101 22 0 0
VODI 0 85 462 2240 492 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 62 616 3316 218 4 0
CDI 0 0 27 288 2359 4438 91 9
VCDI 0 0 1 98 979 7916 23499 22519
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82899 24115 3388 491 80 24 0 0
OW 15 985 926 557 143 45 0 0
VODI 0 886 1140 1733 726 129 0 0
ODI 0 525 638 1123 2127 1137 19 0
CDI 0 72 220 674 1861 1987 291 8
VCDI 0 8 112 525 2338 9297 23284 22520

Date: 2014-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81657 24336 4037 696 73 11 0 0
OW 16 1308 1019 899 143 35 3 0
VODI 0 572 843 2269 450 47 8 0
ODI 0 20 285 925 1282 339 17 0
CDI 0 0 80 282 1702 2807 717 12
VCDI 0 0 7 158 1071 9334 24137 25451
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81655 23864 3677 578 87 31 0 0
OW 18 724 707 526 174 74 10 0
VODI 0 943 780 1501 482 189 18 0
ODI 0 598 681 1604 1041 1007 503 0
CDI 0 103 261 553 1146 2089 1017 14
VCDI 0 4 165 467 1791 9183 23334 25449

Date: 2014-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81331 23321 3750 645 110 3 0 0
OW 31 880 828 590 144 36 1 0
VODI 0 674 819 1364 808 73 18 0
ODI 0 299 482 1023 1558 136 14 0
CDI 0 67 84 367 1504 1296 93 16
VCDI 0 58 75 285 920 8562 25316 29467
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81330 23198 3766 650 160 11 0 0
OW 32 585 562 552 165 64 9 0
VODI 0 753 536 1055 703 231 70 0
ODI 0 618 644 983 1631 362 113 0
CDI 0 137 381 558 1181 1427 1570 95
VCDI 0 8 149 476 1204 8011 23680 29388


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