Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-10-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79889 15149 1518 360 44 0 0 0
OW 0 11 88 205 78 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 42 192 192 8 0 0
ODI 0 3 14 92 199 116 0 0
CDI 0 1 23 96 327 285 19 0
VCDI 0 0 11 113 250 1575 3414 4779
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78943 15685 1511 536 31 0 0 0
OW 0 11 72 193 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 30 187 158 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 76 174 87 0 0
CDI 0 0 15 64 172 361 11 0
VCDI 0 0 5 51 227 1524 3950 4913
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78811 15355 1698 463 126 0 0 0
OW 0 9 40 169 126 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 21 152 184 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 56 217 80 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 34 158 378 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 98 1452 4659 4743
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79148 15002 1562 400 134 2 0 0
OW 4 8 96 135 116 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 38 138 124 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 106 157 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 207 203 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 136 1343 5240 4638
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79148 15002 1598 425 170 3 0 0
OW 4 8 61 137 95 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 38 134 128 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 92 168 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 179 221 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 134 1303 5209 4638

Date: 2014-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79120 15098 1563 292 75 0 0 0
OW 5 15 89 191 88 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 40 182 115 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 102 151 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 206 163 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 216 1734 5810 3703
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79119 15103 1588 322 106 4 0 0
OW 6 10 67 194 64 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 38 167 119 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 90 159 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 188 165 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 215 1721 5804 3703

Date: 2014-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78359 16026 1563 188 40 0 0 0
OW 6 16 101 189 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 21 223 96 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 93 177 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 202 297 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 161 1557 5188 4383
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78359 16029 1467 170 74 0 0 0
OW 6 13 136 158 52 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 66 189 66 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 96 140 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 84 156 157 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 75 252 1686 5188 4383

Date: 2014-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2014-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78493 16062 1457 228 44 18 0 0
OW 9 125 194 140 30 31 0 0
VODI 0 7 147 206 83 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 52 122 151 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 17 151 248 150 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 90 630 2551 4310 3265
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78493 15713 1356 217 51 8 0 0
OW 9 136 113 55 23 24 0 0
VODI 0 107 90 149 28 32 0 0
ODI 0 78 32 101 86 26 0 0
CDI 0 74 55 53 171 40 0 0
VCDI 0 86 221 362 827 2709 4310 3265


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