Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-10-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2913 13771 2764 201 0 0 0 0
OW 0 189 381 352 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 138 594 288 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 190 335 127 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 67 507 726 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 336 2584 9794 9497
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3185 12684 3025 228 10 0 0 0
OW 0 255 322 430 48 5 0 0
VODI 0 11 151 605 289 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 192 356 147 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 374 547 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 416 2460 7559 12413
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3565 12067 2484 126 0 0 0 0
OW 0 499 566 266 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 158 672 88 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 317 461 33 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 618 734 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 206 1987 8488 12433
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2602 11898 2938 102 0 0 0 0
OW 0 913 553 219 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 132 338 473 91 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 451 218 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 169 490 261 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 375 2601 8534 12437
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2602 12065 3072 139 0 0 0 0
OW 0 751 379 165 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 127 364 498 103 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 34 394 221 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 196 395 257 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 454 2596 8533 12437

Date: 2014-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3096 10637 2619 75 1 0 0 0
OW 0 1251 574 99 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 348 433 481 70 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 56 452 288 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 158 430 240 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 390 2640 9011 12460
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3096 10859 2698 75 1 0 0 0
OW 0 920 450 78 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 443 457 437 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 73 465 306 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 172 360 177 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 57 470 2686 9010 12460

Date: 2014-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3200 10653 2882 209 0 0 0 0
OW 0 845 760 304 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 118 543 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 243 451 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 72 411 319 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 331 2318 8944 13111
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3200 10065 2472 151 0 0 0 0
OW 0 893 515 65 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 514 513 209 24 0 0 0
ODI 0 74 238 570 165 25 0 0
CDI 0 4 23 252 457 115 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 130 615 2518 8942 13111

Date: 2014-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2014-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2747 9139 1879 66 1 0 0 0
OW 0 890 463 158 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 1048 824 568 49 0 0 0
ODI 0 226 218 475 240 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 55 315 345 102 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 180 747 1760 7143 16210
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2747 9571 2029 127 11 0 0 0
OW 0 783 581 290 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 825 546 385 140 39 0 0
ODI 0 123 203 419 216 144 0 0
CDI 0 1 72 323 298 216 35 0
VCDI 0 0 9 218 705 1467 7108 16210


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