Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-10-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83251 40814 6680 980 50 0 0 0
OW 0 589 1108 1378 205 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 315 1573 1153 44 0 0
ODI 0 3 16 417 1369 616 0 0
CDI 0 1 23 181 1065 2127 249 0
VCDI 0 0 11 120 629 5064 18293 18674
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82367 39070 7031 1367 74 0 0 0
OW 0 641 992 1502 291 10 0 0
VODI 0 35 276 1520 1329 127 2 0
ODI 0 3 44 403 1094 818 13 0
CDI 0 0 15 138 786 1897 341 0
VCDI 0 0 5 72 684 4721 17305 22075
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82472 36273 5558 793 170 0 0 0
OW 0 2134 1688 949 282 0 0 0
VODI 0 379 859 2164 489 16 0 0
ODI 0 4 15 880 1434 234 1 0
CDI 0 0 7 109 1432 2030 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 43 459 4688 19406 21970
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81771 33557 5465 736 143 2 0 0
OW 4 3032 2017 1118 245 40 0 0
VODI 0 571 1271 2078 626 79 0 0
ODI 0 3 118 1301 1103 182 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 418 1497 1050 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 928 5414 20271 21859
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81771 34399 5921 922 193 8 0 0
OW 4 2153 1433 1006 206 43 0 0
VODI 0 583 1289 1901 621 72 0 0
ODI 0 28 227 1368 1160 205 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 421 1339 1011 131 0
VCDI 0 0 0 89 1023 5428 20233 21859

Date: 2014-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82223 30053 5155 639 96 16 0 0
OW 5 2801 2349 1496 313 37 0 0
VODI 0 683 1524 2273 872 228 8 0
ODI 0 0 124 1206 1418 630 16 0
CDI 0 0 1 336 1327 1227 131 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 907 5857 21641 21397
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82222 30458 5455 952 169 23 0 0
OW 6 2176 1872 1193 242 42 0 0
VODI 0 889 1638 2033 817 216 7 0
ODI 0 14 174 1317 1325 547 13 0
CDI 0 0 14 394 1366 1201 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 120 1014 5966 21666 21397

Date: 2014-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81559 29981 5314 598 73 0 0 0
OW 6 2223 2357 1249 151 9 0 0
VODI 0 321 680 2780 658 58 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 691 2910 299 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 133 1164 2916 291 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 517 4940 21862 23263
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81559 29368 4654 649 333 124 0 0
OW 6 2200 1475 760 525 115 0 0
VODI 0 879 1796 2135 1218 341 28 0
ODI 0 74 411 1213 1121 595 206 0
CDI 0 4 30 497 1214 1420 323 0
VCDI 0 0 0 225 1062 5627 21598 23263

Date: 2014-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2014-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81240 27254 3837 408 85 44 0 0
OW 9 1780 1027 447 103 78 0 0
VODI 0 1483 1413 2163 963 147 0 0
ODI 0 396 501 1332 2060 468 0 0
CDI 0 15 191 710 2033 1874 55 0
VCDI 0 0 23 412 1887 8056 19162 25392
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81240 27422 3961 596 261 261 0 0
OW 9 1265 906 626 423 328 0 0
VODI 0 1501 1187 1637 1641 681 2 0
ODI 0 495 412 1265 1781 1071 43 0
CDI 0 146 240 614 1099 1299 418 0
VCDI 0 99 286 734 1926 7027 18754 25392


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