Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-10-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79228 16331 1523 158 17 0 0 0
OW 0 22 223 227 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 82 188 202 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 113 199 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 93 322 133 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 407 1616 4245 3637
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80004 15648 1498 237 19 0 0 0
OW 0 56 136 267 107 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 53 234 96 9 0 0
ODI 0 4 31 133 108 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 37 90 260 129 0 0
VCDI 0 0 2 143 487 1755 3350 4158
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81321 14259 1257 292 27 0 0 0
OW 0 16 127 187 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 38 230 269 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 78 327 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 97 380 332 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 117 221 1813 3103 4412
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80506 14809 1486 281 13 0 0 0
OW 0 13 93 235 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 38 223 196 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 15 85 308 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 19 90 334 291 17 0
VCDI 0 0 4 114 239 1520 3331 4761
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80506 14806 1499 326 23 0 0 0
OW 0 16 81 214 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 37 207 155 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 14 81 341 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 19 84 333 256 17 0
VCDI 0 0 5 116 240 1546 3331 4761

Date: 2014-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79065 15880 1483 332 75 0 0 0
OW 0 8 103 181 62 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 37 222 143 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 78 182 115 0 0
CDI 0 0 15 76 219 388 5 0
VCDI 0 0 6 55 263 1626 5902 2548
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79065 15880 1483 358 84 0 0 0
OW 0 8 96 174 54 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 40 204 132 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 78 208 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 16 67 210 367 0 0
VCDI 0 0 10 63 256 1676 5907 2548

Date: 2014-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78664 15438 1907 461 94 0 0 0
OW 0 5 50 200 78 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 24 195 139 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 59 246 84 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 46 181 645 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 112 1251 4364 4796
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78664 15425 1874 514 192 6 0 0
OW 0 15 54 138 84 21 0 0
VODI 0 3 25 183 121 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 45 138 132 0 0
CDI 0 0 22 32 121 288 0 0
VCDI 0 0 9 67 194 1502 4365 4796

Date: 2014-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79078 15261 1540 373 85 4 0 0
OW 2 11 62 165 97 9 0 0
VODI 0 1 32 176 132 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 100 187 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 222 228 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 38 109 1330 5095 4649
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79080 15254 1509 440 171 9 0 0
OW 0 19 84 124 88 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 32 173 148 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 52 172 78 4 0
CDI 0 0 9 29 136 194 30 0
VCDI 0 0 2 71 117 1297 5072 4649

Date: 2014-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79463 14836 1445 345 101 0 0 0
OW 4 5 118 131 97 17 0 0
VODI 0 0 33 160 106 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 105 140 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 195 169 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 134 973 5535 4815
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79467 14836 1478 425 200 22 0 0
OW 0 5 103 121 70 28 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 160 152 64 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 72 155 112 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 99 207 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 97 813 5491 4815


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