Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2014-10-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1824 14154 1924 307 0 0 0 0
OW 0 204 501 911 110 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 89 861 453 83 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 109 933 218 9 0
CDI 0 0 1 3 328 1167 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 1035 4915 1857
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1478 14049 1610 209 0 0 0 0
OW 0 385 642 738 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 229 935 464 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 301 785 169 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 537 1059 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 811 4970 2542
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1109 13877 1983 228 3 0 0 0
OW 0 93 491 712 7 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 19 1187 378 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 153 989 106 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 436 1083 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 958 5338 2835
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 661 12516 2220 325 0 0 0 0
OW 0 310 609 835 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 80 938 583 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 114 811 426 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 223 943 329 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 599 5175 4274
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 661 12656 2500 556 2 0 0 0
OW 0 160 339 800 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 67 718 599 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 132 744 364 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 235 934 327 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 40 670 5177 4274

Date: 2014-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 272 11356 2606 424 23 0 0 0
OW 0 364 586 883 126 2 0 0
VODI 0 32 94 748 807 44 2 0
ODI 0 0 22 104 776 425 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 232 1047 231 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 996 5257 4575
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 272 11482 2825 722 53 0 0 0
OW 0 223 380 773 199 1 0 0
VODI 0 47 101 580 841 50 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 82 671 466 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 203 986 284 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 1011 5207 4575

Date: 2014-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 35 8917 1995 384 19 0 0 0
OW 0 1443 1004 688 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 226 351 1337 303 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 151 1098 117 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 327 1610 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 749 6099 5085
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 35 10294 2821 1065 110 1 0 0
OW 0 237 393 750 369 24 0 0
VODI 0 55 122 575 775 346 29 0
ODI 0 0 15 146 330 570 190 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 161 669 565 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 66 882 5375 5085

Date: 2014-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 27 8104 1134 149 16 0 0 0
OW 0 1875 1292 526 139 13 0 0
VODI 0 359 878 1286 355 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 37 704 667 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 158 690 685 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 419 1624 6329 4447
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 27 9865 2354 1022 385 21 0 0
OW 0 399 690 640 237 43 0 0
VODI 0 74 282 775 597 278 6 0
ODI 0 0 15 299 388 475 99 0
CDI 0 0 0 98 371 465 420 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 308 1143 5849 4447

Date: 2014-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 5633 837 171 25 2 0 0
OW 0 2057 1387 981 122 10 0 0
VODI 0 427 948 1492 550 149 3 0
ODI 0 10 91 767 1001 160 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 163 821 728 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 328 1534 6534 5084
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 7757 2447 1500 313 99 0 0
OW 0 365 659 895 672 101 1 0
VODI 0 5 157 960 735 304 31 0
ODI 0 0 0 174 621 447 112 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 373 668 286 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 133 964 6159 5084


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