Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-10-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4206 14939 2169 180 0 0 0 0
OW 0 116 356 458 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 34 425 299 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 537 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 224 702 245 18
VCDI 0 0 0 23 128 811 6956 12777
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4127 13701 2705 243 34 0 0 0
OW 0 182 338 466 80 5 0 0
VODI 0 2 61 472 243 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 513 216 7 1
CDI 0 0 0 23 222 608 291 59
VCDI 0 0 0 12 150 668 7745 12551
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3264 14368 2433 165 2 0 0 0
OW 0 231 366 350 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 102 630 150 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 228 482 40 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 426 790 88 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 271 1025 8159 12214
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3514 13683 2529 176 0 0 0 0
OW 0 204 423 335 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 152 616 194 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 237 307 92 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 94 554 610 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 441 2325 10418 8891
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3514 13801 2679 255 6 0 0 0
OW 0 87 341 342 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 82 555 218 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 221 287 91 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 89 528 601 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 446 2330 10424 8891

Date: 2014-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2838 13560 2741 225 5 0 0 0
OW 0 237 373 362 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 168 607 257 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 232 316 136 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 470 589 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 417 2388 9670 10062
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2838 13742 2853 289 18 0 0 0
OW 0 68 327 288 61 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 100 618 230 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 219 319 128 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 91 385 422 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 501 2564 9689 10062

Date: 2014-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4126 11675 2610 144 0 0 0 0
OW 0 371 504 335 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 60 806 101 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 152 658 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 477 1391 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 163 1703 7983 12496
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4126 11670 2765 311 27 6 0 0
OW 0 377 280 329 55 10 0 0
VODI 0 3 125 582 287 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 181 377 196 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 257 469 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 404 2410 7981 12496

Date: 2014-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3006 12170 2595 81 0 0 0 0
OW 0 829 499 261 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 257 545 92 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 406 279 30 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 95 637 376 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 265 2291 8610 12452
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3006 12405 2804 211 28 3 0 0
OW 0 568 260 233 69 6 0 0
VODI 0 68 254 475 143 37 0 0
ODI 0 0 35 340 272 97 2 0
CDI 0 0 3 101 317 306 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 38 446 2248 8609 12452

Date: 2014-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3281 11246 2491 101 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1005 551 143 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 234 400 452 94 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 45 460 244 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 160 451 228 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 358 2827 8829 12205
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3281 11589 2753 185 43 6 0 0
OW 0 647 351 142 56 7 0 0
VODI 0 246 330 458 88 58 0 0
ODI 0 3 45 381 282 71 2 0
CDI 0 0 12 123 338 222 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 340 2718 8817 12205


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