Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-10-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85258 45424 5616 645 17 0 0 0
OW 0 342 1080 1596 196 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 205 1474 954 89 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 306 1669 323 9 0
CDI 0 0 1 150 874 2002 308 18
VCDI 0 0 0 74 558 3462 16116 18271
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85609 43398 5813 689 53 0 0 0
OW 0 623 1116 1471 230 5 0 0
VODI 0 80 343 1641 803 79 0 0
ODI 0 4 31 522 1406 407 7 1
CDI 0 0 37 135 1019 1796 314 59
VCDI 0 0 2 155 650 3234 16065 19251
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85694 42504 5673 685 32 0 0 0
OW 0 340 984 1249 97 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 159 2047 797 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 459 1798 197 25 0
CDI 0 0 7 118 1242 2205 181 0
VCDI 0 0 0 125 500 3796 16600 19461
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84681 41008 6235 782 13 0 0 0
OW 0 527 1125 1405 114 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 270 1777 973 20 0 0
ODI 0 3 16 436 1426 539 0 0
CDI 0 0 19 198 1111 1844 377 0
VCDI 0 0 4 122 705 4444 18924 17926
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84681 41263 6678 1137 31 0 0 0
OW 0 263 761 1356 145 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 186 1480 972 25 0 0
ODI 0 3 20 434 1372 485 0 0
CDI 0 0 19 192 1096 1791 369 0
VCDI 0 0 5 121 726 4546 18932 17926

Date: 2014-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82175 40796 6830 981 103 0 0 0
OW 0 609 1062 1426 237 3 0 0
VODI 0 45 299 1577 1207 81 2 0
ODI 0 0 40 414 1274 676 7 0
CDI 0 0 15 163 921 2024 271 0
VCDI 0 0 6 63 717 5010 20829 17185
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82175 41104 7161 1369 155 0 0 0
OW 0 299 803 1235 314 5 0 0
VODI 0 47 241 1402 1203 81 0 0
ODI 0 0 21 379 1198 682 3 0
CDI 0 0 16 167 798 1775 303 0
VCDI 0 0 10 72 791 5251 20803 17185

Date: 2014-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82825 36030 6512 989 113 0 0 0
OW 0 1819 1558 1223 128 1 0 0
VODI 0 230 435 2338 543 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 362 2002 232 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 73 985 3646 83 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 297 3703 18446 22377
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82825 37389 7460 1890 329 13 0 0
OW 0 629 727 1217 508 55 0 0
VODI 0 61 272 1340 1183 434 29 0
ODI 0 0 36 372 845 898 190 0
CDI 0 0 22 117 539 1426 589 0
VCDI 0 0 9 88 664 4794 17721 22377

Date: 2014-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82111 35535 5269 603 101 4 0 0
OW 2 2715 1853 952 238 22 0 0
VODI 0 402 1167 2007 579 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 48 1210 1133 169 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 290 1549 1289 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 793 5245 20034 21548
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82113 37524 6667 1673 584 33 0 0
OW 0 986 1034 997 394 60 0 0
VODI 0 142 568 1423 888 357 6 0
ODI 0 0 54 691 832 650 105 0
CDI 0 0 12 228 824 965 480 0
VCDI 0 0 2 119 871 4688 19530 21548

Date: 2014-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82752 31715 4773 617 126 2 0 0
OW 4 3067 2056 1255 219 27 0 0
VODI 0 661 1381 2104 750 185 3 0
ODI 0 10 139 1332 1385 238 5 0
CDI 0 0 4 375 1467 1125 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 55 820 5334 20898 22104
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82756 34182 6678 2110 556 127 0 0
OW 0 1017 1113 1158 798 136 1 0
VODI 0 251 505 1578 975 426 31 0
ODI 0 3 45 627 1058 630 116 0
CDI 0 0 12 200 810 1097 351 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 570 4495 20467 22104


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