Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2014-10-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2018 14638 1238 55 0 0 0 0
OW 0 566 847 513 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 199 1180 512 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 196 732 375 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 35 325 846 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 98 859 4653 2035
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3031 13581 1047 37 0 0 0 0
OW 0 903 798 316 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 152 404 1163 312 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 300 773 206 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 80 395 823 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 154 901 4636 1991
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2180 15221 1939 325 0 0 0 0
OW 0 85 409 578 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 61 758 346 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 199 944 167 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 23 351 1034 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 88 1264 4979 1040
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1953 14340 2080 216 0 0 0 0
OW 0 136 435 983 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 86 826 434 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 114 961 210 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 13 305 1130 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 1037 5340 1285
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1953 14383 2083 494 10 0 0 0
OW 0 97 450 641 78 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 68 902 409 40 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 895 200 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 5 380 1031 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 1141 5346 1285

Date: 2014-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1682 14121 1761 222 0 0 0 0
OW 0 288 558 906 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 138 920 456 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 203 939 155 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 430 1092 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 962 5024 2069
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1682 14171 1858 540 0 0 0 0
OW 0 245 468 603 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 131 909 389 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 201 919 165 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 477 919 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 1118 5023 2069

Date: 2014-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1299 14152 1879 180 1 0 0 0
OW 0 39 538 597 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 45 1344 270 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 151 1160 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 332 1438 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 660 5388 2529
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1299 13879 1758 382 11 0 0 0
OW 0 299 462 628 96 2 0 0
VODI 0 13 241 911 432 70 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 336 751 252 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 472 951 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 880 5324 2529

Date: 2014-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1141 13000 2018 264 3 0 0 0
OW 0 213 677 739 11 1 0 0
VODI 0 14 54 1084 386 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 180 867 277 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 306 980 201 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 854 5217 3553
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1141 12958 2133 554 80 10 0 0
OW 0 207 386 709 65 45 0 0
VODI 0 62 200 663 578 136 37 0
ODI 0 0 30 277 498 346 119 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 242 679 364 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 129 904 4901 3553

Date: 2014-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 449 11894 2398 419 6 0 0 0
OW 0 389 639 821 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 135 787 673 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 135 835 373 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 231 1116 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 43 905 5085 4398
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 449 12102 2564 913 241 102 3 0
OW 0 155 375 581 276 59 32 0
VODI 0 58 195 421 694 389 76 0
ODI 0 0 39 210 372 370 236 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 197 651 476 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 89 849 4455 4398


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