Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-10-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4088 14989 2007 253 0 0 0 0
OW 0 211 389 402 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 219 600 142 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 212 473 194 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 508 1187 358 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 117 693 4930 13826
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2573 16220 2420 174 0 0 0 0
OW 0 478 274 355 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 168 285 288 104 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 53 271 308 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 127 355 728 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 241 1142 5989 13157
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2588 16727 2865 122 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 278 307 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 521 160 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 136 423 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 366 934 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 119 1497 6752 11873
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4427 14752 2513 125 3 0 0 0
OW 0 81 361 395 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 43 494 203 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 145 485 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 255 731 149 6
VCDI 0 0 0 24 103 1236 8510 10672
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4427 14701 2587 222 5 0 0 0
OW 0 124 224 340 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 106 413 249 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 197 375 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 313 664 152 7
VCDI 0 0 0 18 102 1301 8507 10671

Date: 2014-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4089 14394 2460 242 2 0 0 0
OW 0 126 373 448 41 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 40 459 277 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 73 446 262 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 177 688 287 35
VCDI 0 0 0 22 97 663 9028 11090
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4089 14134 2488 303 6 0 0 0
OW 0 376 269 345 43 3 0 0
VODI 0 10 116 452 220 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 122 457 250 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 209 599 200 27
VCDI 0 0 0 18 105 763 9116 11098

Date: 2014-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3966 14211 2021 147 2 0 0 0
OW 0 183 385 354 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 31 713 129 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 142 632 54 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 362 920 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 165 675 8922 11687
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3966 13951 2096 345 60 8 0 0
OW 0 403 237 323 76 22 0 0
VODI 0 40 104 528 183 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 132 518 204 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 283 606 236 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 192 778 8774 11687

Date: 2014-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3004 14441 2462 169 0 0 0 0
OW 0 176 417 379 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 103 633 165 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 220 344 101 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 446 742 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 327 1695 8380 11485
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3004 13785 2423 334 52 3 0 0
OW 0 715 296 308 75 14 0 0
VODI 0 91 181 447 165 68 0 0
ODI 0 27 74 230 277 242 2 0
CDI 0 0 8 112 348 584 101 16
VCDI 0 0 0 9 395 1649 8362 11469

Date: 2014-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2913 13771 2764 201 0 0 0 0
OW 0 189 381 352 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 138 594 288 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 190 335 127 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 67 507 726 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 336 2584 9794 9497
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2913 12741 2687 329 37 0 0 0
OW 0 842 341 303 106 6 0 0
VODI 0 337 158 401 258 88 0 0
ODI 0 50 74 224 270 222 0 0
CDI 0 1 24 127 420 499 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 421 2632 9784 9497


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